2022年长江流域极端干旱事件及其影响与对策  

Impacts and countermeasures of extreme drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022

作　　者：夏军[1,2] 陈进 佘敦先 XIA Jun;CHEN Jin;SHE Dunxian(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan 430072,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction,Wuhan 430072,China;Yangtze River Academy of Sciences,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,of the Ministry of Water Resources,Wuhan 430015,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]海绵城市建设水系统科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [3]长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北武汉430015

出　　处：《水利学报》2022年第10期1143-1153,共11页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA23040304);国家自然科学基金重大项目(41890823)。

摘　　要：2022年7月以来,长江流域遭遇从1961年有完整气象观测记录以来最严重的特大干旱事件,引起社会广泛关注。本文基于长系列历史资料,统计分析了长江流域历史典型干旱及其致灾情况;剖析了2022年长江干旱发生的成因及特点;提出了科学抗旱减灾和综合施策的思考。分析表明:长江流域干旱发生成因受全球气候等多因素影响,尤其大气环流异常,夏季梅雨期过短,入陆台风少,副热带高压长时间大范围控制等,导致了流域大范围降雨量和径流量显著减少;长江干旱具有周期性特点,其中严重及极端旱灾中下游发生概率高于上游;2022年干旱显著特点是极端高温地区和范围具有实测记录以来第一,夏秋连旱问题十分突出。但是由于流域抗旱能力提高显著,严重干旱至今尚未引起严重旱灾。未来抗旱减灾的重点是,科学认识干旱的自然属性和成因;在进一步完善流域和区域水网及水利工程建设基础上,着力提高抗旱能力的基础建设,要加强以减轻重大干旱风险为主要目标的预警预报和调度等非工程措施,建立流域水旱减灾风险管理体系和适应性管理系统。Since July 2022,the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)has been hit by the most severe drought since 1961,which has attracted widespread public attention.Based on a long series of historical data,this study analyzed the changes of the historical extreme drought and its impact in the YRB.We also investigated the causes and characteristics of the extreme drought in the YRB in 2022,and proposed the scientific drought resistance strategy and comprehensive countermeasures of extreme drought in the YRB.The results show that severe extreme drought in the YRB is influenced by both global climate change and intensified human activities.In 2022,the rainfall and runoff reduced largely in most areas of YRB,which were mainly caused by the atmospheric circulation anomaly,the too short Meiyu period in summer,the few landward typhoons,and etc.From the historical drought data,we found that the occurrence probability of severe and extreme drought in the lower reaches is higher than that in the upper reaches of YRB.The remarkable feature of 2022’s drought is that the area and extent of extreme high temperature are ranked first since time of the measured record,and the hydrological drought during summer is also very serious.However,the 2022’s extreme drought has not caused severe impact so far due to the significant improvement of drought resistance in the YRB.In the future,the focus of drought mitigation is to scientifically understand the natural properties of drought and the causes of drought.On the basis of further improving the construction of regional water conservancy networks and water conservancy projects,efforts should also be made to improve the infrastructure for drought resistance.On the other hand,the non-engineering measures,such as early warning,forecasting and dispatching,should also be strengthened with the main purpose of reducing drought losses.The risk management system and an adaptive management system should be established for flood and drought reduction in the YRB.

关 键 词：长江流域 2022年干旱 气象干旱 水文干旱 抗旱能力 抗旱对策 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]