基于灰色理论的安吉竹产业发展分析  

Analysis of Bamboo Industry Development in Anji County Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：黄勇[1] 柴庆辉 吕衡 唐辉[1] 吴雪玲 靳晓东 张周婷 余礼华 胡可易[1] 刘勇[1] HUANG Yong;CHAI Qing-hui;LV Heng;TANG Hui;WU Xue-ling;JIN Xiao-dong;ZHANG Zhou-ting;YU Li-hua;HU Ke-yi;LIU Yong(Anji Forestry Bureau,Anji 313300,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]安吉县林业局,浙江安吉313300

出　　处：《竹子学报》2022年第2期67-73,共7页Journal of Bamboo Research

基　　金：中央财政林业科技推广示范资金项目(〔2018〕TS 12号)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2021年安吉县竹产业产值数据,运用灰色关联分析法研究了3次产业与竹产业产值间的关联度,并运用GM(1,1)预测模型对未来5 a安吉县竹产业产值进行了预测。结果表明:2011—2021年,安吉县竹产业第一、二、三产业产值年平均增长率分别为0.25%、2.16%和17.93%。安吉县竹产业结构在2018年由“二、三、一”格局调整为“三、二、一”格局,且第三产业关联度整体呈上升趋势。未来将通过项目引育,按照“做强二产、带动一产、助力三产”的战略,做大做强竹产业。提出了下一步实施“以二促一带三”的发展战略,促进竹产业第一、二、三产业融合发展,推进竹文化与竹产业深度有机融合,加快竹产业结构的调整优化。Based on the output data of the bamboo industry in Anji County from 2011 to 2021,the grey relational analysis was applied to study the correlation between the three bamboo industries and the overall bamboo industry,and the GM(1,1)forecasting model was used to predict the output values of Anji’s bamboo industry in the next 5 years.The results showed that the average annual growth rates of the bamboo primary,secondary and tertiary industries in Anji County from 2011 to 2021 were 0.25%,2.16%and 17.93%,respectively.In 2018,the structure of Anji County’s bamboo industry changed from a“two,three,one”pattern to a“three,two,one”pattern,and the correlation degree of the tertiary industry showed an upward trend.In the future,the bamboo industry will be expanded and strengthened through project introduction and incubation in accordance with the strategy of“strengthening the secondary industry,propelling the primary industry and facilitating the tertiary industry”.This paper proposes to implement the development strategy of“Relying on secondary industry to promote primary and tertiary industries”,encourage the coordinated development of the three bamboo industries,facilitate the deep concerted integration of bamboo culture and bamboo industry,and accelerate the structural adjustment and optimization of bamboo industry to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the bamboo industry in Anji County.

关 键 词：竹产业 灰色关联分析 灰色预测 高级化分析 产业结构 

分 类 号：F326.27[经济管理—产业经济]