铁路货运量预测研究综述  

Summary of Research on Railway Freight Volume Forecast

作　　者：孟建军[1,2,3] 陈鹏芳 李德仓 胥如迅 MENG Jianjun;CHEN Pengfang;LI Decang;XU Ruxun(Mechatronics T&R Institute,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Provincial Engineering Technology Center for Informatization of Logistics&Transport Equipment,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Provincial Industry Technology Center of Logistics&Transport Equipment,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学机电技术研究所,兰州730070 [2]甘肃省物流及运输装备信息化工程技术研究中心,兰州730070 [3]甘肃省物流与运输装备行业技术中心,兰州730070

出　　处：《铁道标准设计》2022年第10期18-26,共9页Railway Standard Design

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(62063013,72061021);国家铁路局课题研究计划项目(TYFH201931,TYSH202022)。

摘　　要：为获得准确的铁路货运量预测,提升铁路货运组织效率,提高铁路物流规划的前瞻性。首先,分析铁路货运量影响因素研究现状,探讨新形势下铁路货运量影响因素的变化;其次,将应用于铁路货运量预测领域的方法分为基于统计学的传统预测方法和基于机器学习的智能预测方法两类并进行应用分析,着重对比梳理智能预测方法的改进方式、改进原理、改进效果和适用场景,从单一模型在数据预处理、参数选取、结构优化方面改进,不确定因素、动态性因素影响下组合预测模型构建和改进,海量、高维度、异构数据下铁路货运量预测的实现3个方面探讨铁路货运量预测领域需进一步研究的方向;最后,基于研究现状和发展特征,指明了铁路货运量预测领域的潜在研究热点和难点,以期为铁路货运组织和运营提供参考。Accurate railway freight volume forecasting can improve the efficiency of railway freight organization and railway logistics planning.First of all,current researches on factors affecting railway freight volume are analyzed the and the changes in factors affecting railway freight volume under the new situation are discussed.Secondly,the methods applied in railway freight volume forecasting are divided into two categories:traditional forecasting methods based on statistics and intelligent forecasting methods based on machine learning,and their application analysis is carried out,focusing on the comparison and sorting of the improvement methods,improvement principle,improvement effects and applicable scenarios of intelligent prediction methods.The areas that need further research on railway freight volume forecasting are discussed from three aspects of the improvement of a single model in data preprocessing,parameter selection and structural optimization,the construction and improvement of combined forecasting models under the influence of uncertain and dynamic factors,and the realization of railway freight volume forecasting with massive,high-dimensional and heterogeneous data.Finally,based on the research status and development characteristics,the potential research hotspots and difficulties in railway freight volume forecasting are pointed out so as to provide a certain reference for railway freight organization and operation.

关 键 词：铁路货运量 定性预测 定量预测 组合预测 综述 

分 类 号：U294.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]