图们江地区粮食减产的水热指标(5~8月降水量)对前期海温异常的响应  

Relationship between water and heat index of grain reduction(precipitation from May to August) and sea surface temperature in Tumen River Basin

作　　者：金爱芬[1] 权赫春 JIN Aifen;QUAN Hechun(Geography and Oceam Sciences College of Yanbian University,Yanji Jilin 133002,China)

机构地区：[1]延边大学地理与海洋科学学院,吉林延吉133002

出　　处：《延边大学农学学报》2022年第3期13-22,共10页Agricultural Science Journal of Yanbian University

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(42067065)。

摘　　要：使用1960年1月~2018年12月图们江地区粮食减产的水分指标(5~8月降水量,P_(5-8)),分析了近59年其季节分布和变化,并结合全球海温资料,采用奇异值分解、偏最小二乘回归分析、相关分析等方法研究了图们江地区P_(5-8)对1~3月前期海温的响应。结果表明:1)图们江地区P_(5)每10年上升5.6 mm,旱季有从5月往6月推迟的迹象。P_(8)每10年下降8.5 mm,最多雨月从8月往7月提前。2)最多雨月、8月、5月和前期1月海温相关。日本海至鄂霍次克海海区偏冷、亚洲以北的北极偏冷;马斯克林高压海区偏冷;赤道中东太平洋偏暖、南太平洋副高海区偏冷;南半球西风漂流区偏冷时,汛期一致推迟,P_(8)增加,P_(5)则减少,且P_(5)对海温响应与前者稍有差异。3)2月鄂霍次克海至白令海偏冷、欧洲以北的北极偏冷、50 o N北太平洋由西向东出现明显的分割南北两侧冷区的偏暖带;赤道中东太平洋偏暖、西太平洋暖池区偏冷、澳大利亚东北侧向阿拉斯加暖流方向的热带太平洋海区偏冷,;印度洋偏冷、尤其南印度洋东部海区明显偏冷时,P_(6)一致增加。4)3月40°N以南的西太平洋海区明显偏暖、赤道和热带南太平洋中部偏暖;亚欧大陆以北的北极偏暖、印度洋偏暖时,P_(7)一致增加。综上所述,用1~3月全球海温可以提前预测图们江地区P_(5-8),提前预警当地旱涝灾害,为预防粮食减产早做准备。This study analyzed seasonal distribution and change of the water index(precipitation from May to August,P_(5-8))leading grain yield reduction in Tumen River area in the past 59 years(from January 1960 to December 2018).The response of P_(5-8) to early SST in Tumen River area from January to March was further elaborated by singular value decomposition,partial least squares regression,and correlation analysis.The results showed that(1)P_(5) increased by 5.6 mm every 10 years,and the dry season delayed from May to June;P_(8) decreased by 8.5 mm every 10 year and the month with the highest rainfall advanced from August to July;(2)the precipitation of the highest rainfall month,August,May,and early January was related to SST.The sea areas from the sea of Japan to the sea of Okhotsk were relatively cold;the Arctic north of Asia was relatively cold;the Maskelin high pressure sea area was cold;the equatorial Middle East Pacific was warmer;the South Pacific sub high sea area was colder.When the westerly drift area in the southern hemisphere was cold,the flood season delayed,P_(8) increasedbut P_(5) decreased,and P_(5) response to SST was slightly different from that of P_(8);(3)in February,P_(6) increased when the Okhotsk Sea to Bering Sea and the Arctic north of Europe were cold,the 50°N North Pacific from west to east occurred a warm zone dividing the cold zone on the north and south sides,the equatorial Middle East Pacific was warmer,the warm pool area of the Western Pacific was colder,the tropical Pacific sea area in the direction of the warm current from Northeast Australia to Alaska was colder,and the Indian Ocean was cold,especially in the eastern part of the southern Indian Ocean;(4)in March,P_(7) increased consistently when the sea area of the Western Pacific Ocean of south of 40°N was obvious warmer,the equator and the central tropical South Pacific were warmer,the Arcticnorth of the Eurasian continent was warmer,and the Indian Ocean was warmer.In summary,the global SST from January to March can be used to pr

关 键 词：图们江地区 降水量 海温 响应 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]