四川水稻不同生育期干旱与产量灰色关联分析  

Grey correlation analysis of drought and yield at different growth stages of rice in Sichuan Province

作　　者：邓国卫[1,2] 孙俊 赖江[1] 张玲[4] DENG Guowei;SUN Jun;LAI Jiang;ZHANG Ling(Sichuan Climate Center,Chengdu 610072,China;Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Branch of China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,Chengdu 610072,China;Suining Meteorological Bureau of Sichuan Province,Suining 629000,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气候中心,四川成都610072 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610072 [3]中国气象局干部培训学院四川分院,四川成都610072 [4]四川省遂宁市气象局,四川遂宁629000

出　　处：《干旱气象》2022年第5期814-822,共9页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目(2018JY0643);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJYJXZD202102)共同资助。

摘　　要：为克服灾情资料收集不足和不同生育期旱情影响分离困难,本文利用1981—2015年四川省气象站逐日气象观测资料、农业气象观测站水稻生育期资料和各县水稻产量资料,以改进的水分盈亏指数为干旱指标,采用灰色关联分析法,探究四川水稻各生育期干旱与产量的关系。结果表明:四川水稻各生育期干旱频率从高到低依次为移栽—分蘖期、分蘖—拔节期、孕穗—抽穗期、抽穗—成熟期、拔节—孕穗期。各生育期水稻干旱频率同水分盈亏指数与产量灰色关联度的空间一致性较低,干旱高频区出现在盆地中部或东北部,而关联度较高区域则位于盆周、攀西等山区。伴随着水稻生长发育进程,干旱对水稻产量的影响逐渐减弱,移栽—分蘖期和分蘖—拔节期干旱对水稻产量影响最明显。不同稻作区各县干旱对水稻产量影响最大的生育期不同,各地区应根据水稻各生育期干旱影响特点加强水稻干旱防御。其中,成都平原、盆中丘陵稻作区应重点关注分蘖—拔节期水稻干旱防御,而其他5个稻作区应重点关注移栽—分蘖期水稻干旱防御。In order to overcome the shortage of disaster condition records and the difficulty of identification to drought effect at each growth stage,based on daily meteorological data at weather stations,growth period data at agro-meteorological stations and rice yield data in counties of Sichuan Province from 1981 to 2015,with improved water budget index as drought indicator,the relationship between drought and yield at each growth stage of rice was analyzed by using grey correlation analysis method.The results show that the drought frequency at growth stages of rice in Sichuan from high to low was transplanting-tillering stage,tillering-jointing stage,bootingheading stage,heading-maturity stage and jointing-booting stage in turn.The spatial characteristic of rice drought frequency at each growth stage was low consistent with the spatial distribution of grey correlation degree between water budget index and rice yield.The high frequency of drought occurred in the middle or northeast of Sichuan Basin,while the high grey correlation degree located in the mountainous areas around the basin edge and Panxi area.With the process of rice growth,the effect of drought on rice yield weakened,and at transplanting-tillering and tillering-jointing stage it was the most obvious.The growth period with the greatest influence of drought on rice yield was different in each county of different planting regions,so the policies of drought alleviation should be strengthened according to the spatial characteristics of drought influence at each growth stage of rice.We should focus on the drought at tillering-jointing stage of rice in planting regions of the Chengdu Plain and the central hill of Sichuan Basin and transplanting-tillering stage in other five rice planting regions.

关 键 词：水稻 生育期 干旱 产量 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S166[农业科学—农业气象学]