1880-2020年安徽芜湖气温长序列构建及年代际特征  

Construction of temperature series and its decadal characteristics from 1880 to 2020 in Wuhu of Anhui Province

作　　者：刘蕾 李鸾[1] 张丽[1] 孙大兵 张晓忆 LIU Lei;LI Luan;ZHANG Li;SUN Dabing;ZHANG Xiaoyi(Wuhu Meteorological Bureau of Anhui Province,Wuhu 241000,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省芜湖市气象局,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《干旱气象》2022年第5期831-839,共9页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41505049);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z007);安徽省气象局研究型业务科技攻关项目“气象数据共享服务关键技术研究(YJG202003)”;安徽省气象局创新团队建设计划项目共同资助。

摘　　要：完整的百年气温长序列是气候变化分析的基础,局地百年气温变化既有共性,也存在一定的差异。本文利用1880—1937年、1952—2020年安徽芜湖站气温观测资料和1901—2020年英国东英吉利大学气候研究中心(Climatic Research Unit,CRU)格点气温资料,首先对芜湖站气温观测资料进行检验和订正。在此基础上,采用多元逐步回归分析方法,构建芜湖站1880—2020年月平均气温序列,并统计分析气温的年代际变化特征。结果表明:差值和均一化订正进一步提高了芜湖站1880—1937年月平均气温观测数据质量。用1901—1937年、1953—2020年观测的月平均气温和1901—2020年CRU格点气温拟合的两套气温平均值插补,能够更好地反映芜湖站1938—1951年月平均气温的变化。近140 a来,芜湖春、夏、冬季增温显著,春季气温增幅最明显,而秋季增温趋势不显著;各季节均存在冷暖交替的年代际变化特征,但近20 a增温有所停滞,且存在40~50 a、20~30 a的周期变化。A complete century series of temperature is the basis of climate change analysis.The local century temperature changes have general characteristics,also retain some differences.Based on temperature observation data at Wuhu station of Anhui Province during 1880-1937 and 1952-2020 and CRU(Climatic Research Unit) grid data of University of East Anglia during 1901-2020,the test and correction to observation data of temperature were conducted to obtain high quality data.And on this basis that the time series of temperature from 1880 to 2020 at Wuhu station was constructed by using the multiple stepwise regression method,its decadal characteristics were analyzed.The results show that the quality of monthly mean temperature at Wuhu station from 1880 to 1937 was improved after the difference and homogeneity corrections.Two temperature series were constructed by using the stepwise regression analysis based on CRU grid data during 1901-2020 and station observation data during 1901-1937 and 1953-2020,and the interpolated temperature by their average value could display perfectly the variation characteristic of monthly mean temperature at Wuhu station during 1938-1951.The spring,summer and winter temperature increased significantly at Wuhu station in past 140 years,and the increasing rate of spring temperature was the maximum,followed by summer and winter,while the warming in autumn wasn’t significant.The decadal characteristic of coldness and warmness alternation was obvious in each season from 1880 to 2020,but the warming stalled in recent 20 years.In addition,there were 40-50 a and 20-30 a periodic oscillations of mean temperature.

关 键 词：差值和均一化订正 百年以上气温序列构建 年代际特征 安徽芜湖 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]