基于案例比较的我国生产安全事故系统性风险实证研究  

Empirical study on systemic risk of industrial accidents in China based on cases comparison

作　　者：江田汉[1] 吴军[2] 曾明荣[1,3] 林睿婷 姜传胜 郭再富[1] 吴轩[1] 清柳雯[1,2] JIANG Tianhan;WU Jun;ZENG Mingrong;LIN Ruiting;JIANG Chuansheng;GUO Zaifu;WU Xuan;QING Liuwen(China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China;School of Civil and Resource Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012 [2]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029 [3]北京科技大学土木与资源工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2022年第10期13-17,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金项目(9222024);中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研业务费专项基金项目(2022JBKY07,2022JBKY09)。

摘　　要：为开展生产安全事故系统性风险实证研究,从风险治理角度提出单位国内生产总值生产安全事故死亡率、工矿商贸就业人员10万人生产安全事故死亡率、生产安全事故致死率和重特大事故死亡人数占比4项指标,采用秩和比法构造相对安全风险指数(SRI),并以江苏和宁夏为例开展实证研究。研究结果表明:SRI可更好地量化和反映我国生产安全事故系统性风险水平;近年我国系统性风险非持续下降,呈波动变化;事故少发地区的系统性风险不一定小于事故多发地区。研究结果可为我国安全生产战略谋划和顶层设计提供新思路。In order to carry out the empirical study on the systemic risk of industrial accidents,four indicators including the industrial accident fatality rate per unit of GDP,the industrial accident fatality rate per 100,000 employees in the industrial,mining,commercial and trade sectors,the industrial accident fatality rate and the proportion of death toll of major accidents were put forward from the perspective of risk management.The relative safety risk index(SRI)was constructed by the rank sum ratio method,and the empirical study was conducted by taking Jiangsu and Ningxia as cases.The results showed that the SRI index better quantified and reflected the level of the systemic risk of industrial accidents in China.The systemic risk did not decline continuously in recent years,but was fluctuating,and the systemic risk in less accident-prone areas was not necessarily smaller than in more accident-prone areas.The research results can provide new ideas for the strategy planning and top-level design of work safety in China.

关 键 词：安全生产 生产安全事故 系统性风险 涌现 秩和比法 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]