基于GWRRK的多年冻土地温空间分布模拟研究--以青藏铁路昆仑山至尺曲谷地段为例  

Spatial distribution of permafrost ground temperature by using GWRRK simulation:a case study on the section from Kunlun Mountain to Chiqu Valley around the Qinghai-Tibet Railway

作　　者：姚明星 赵锐 杨林川 齐华 廖昕 孟祥连[3] 周福军[3] YAO Mingxing;ZHAO Rui;YANG Linchuan;QI Hua;LIAO Xin;MENG Xianglian;ZHOU Fujun(Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;School of Architecture,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co.,Ltd.,Xi’an 710043,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学地球科学与环境工程学院,四川成都611756 [2]西南交通大学建筑学院,四川成都611756 [3]中铁第一勘察设计院集团有限公司,陕西西安710043

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2022年第5期1570-1580,共11页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603101);国家自然科学基金项目(41571520)资助。

摘　　要：研究冻土地温空间分布,有助于探索冻土活动层厚度的变化特征,为冻土灾害防治提供科学依据。以青藏铁路昆仑山至尺曲谷地段多年冻土覆盖区域为研究区域,采用地理加权岭回归克里金(GWRRK)方法对该区域2001年7月至9月的地温空间分布进行了模拟,揭示了该区域多年冻土融化深度的变化特征。结果表明:研究区域内多年冻土地温总体表现为山区地温低于平原和盆地地区地温;地温随深度的增加而降低,在0~5 m的深度区间内温度变化较大,平均温差为10.3℃,而在5~15 m的深度区间内基本保持不变,平均温差仅0.2℃。通过将GWRRK方法与具有外部漂移克里金(KED)方法和地理加权岭回归(GWRR)方法的模拟效果进行对比,发现前者的模拟精度优于后两种方法。The spatial distribution of permafrost ground temperature is significant to identify the changes in the active layer thickness,which can provide insight into the prevention of the geohazard.This paper takes the per⁃mafrost coverage area from Kunlun Mountain to Chiqu Valley around the Qinghai-Tibet Railway as the study ar⁃ea,and uses the geographically weighted ridge regression Kriging(GWRRK)method to simulate the spatial dis⁃tribution of its ground temperature from July to September in 2001,in order to reveal the variation of its associat⁃ed thawing depth.The results show that the permafrost ground temperature in mountainous areas is generally lower than that in the plains and basins,and it decreases with the increase of ground depth.The temperature var⁃ies greatly in the ground depth interval of 0~5 m,and the average temperature difference is 10.3℃.However,in the ground depth interval of 5~15 m,the temperature remains nearly unchanged,and the average difference is only 0.2℃.By comparing the performance of the GWRRK method with Kriging with an external drift(KED)method and geographically weighted ridge regression(GWRR)method,it is identified that the simulation accu⁃racy of the former is better than the latter two methods.

关 键 词：地理加权岭回归克里金(GWRRK) 地理加权岭回归 青藏铁路 地温分布 多年冻土 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] P642.14[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]