贸易协定如何影响贸易增长方式  

How Trade Agreements Aff ect the Patterns of Trade Growth

作　　者：施炳展[1] 吴金霞 SHI Bingzhan;WU Jinxia

机构地区：[1]南开大学跨国公司研究中心,天津300071 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2022年第6期27-41,共15页International Business Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(项目编号:20&ZD069);国家自科基金面上项目(项目编号:71973071);2019年中宣部宣传思想文化青年英才项目。

摘　　要：本文利用1996~2017年170个国家间贸易数据和EIA数据库进行经验分析。结论发现,贸易协定主要通过广度和数量渠道提升贸易规模,对贸易价格并无显著影响;贸易协定主要通过降低双边贸易成本提升贸易规模;上述作用因贸易协定自由化程度和条款异质性、进出口国家发展水平和制度质量差距而存在差异;上述结论在考虑内生性问题和零贸易等因素后依然稳健。结论表明,在肯定贸易协定规模效应的同时,对贸易协定的质量效果应审慎对待。This paper conducts empirical analysis,using the trade data and EIA database among 170 countries from 1996 to 2017.Estimation results show that,trade agreements mainly increase the trade volume through extensive margin and quantity,and there is no effect on price.Further research also finds that the effects of trade agreements differ in different degrees of trade liberalization and terms of trade,types of importing and exporting countries and the institution quality gap.The conclusions of this paper remain robust after considering endogeneity issues,zero trade and other factors.The above conclusions indicate that while affirming the volume effect of trade agreements,the quality effect of trade agreements should be treated with c aution.

关 键 词：贸易协定 贸易增长方式 贸易规模 贸易三元边际 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]