西宁市流行性感冒发病数与气象因素关系的研究  

Relationship between meteorological factors and influenza in Xining,China

作　　者：刘云广 黄茜 王朝才[2] 赵长成[3] 刘燕[1] LIU Yun-guang;HUANG Qian;WANG Chao-cai;ZHAO Chang-cheng;LIU Yan(Department of Public Health,Medical College of Qinghai University,Xining 810001,China;Qinghai Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Xining Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

机构地区：[1]青海大学医学部公共卫生系,西宁810001 [2]青海省疾病预防控制中心 [3]西宁市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《环境卫生学杂志》2022年第8期579-584,共6页JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE

基　　金：2020年青海大学研究生课程建设项目(qdyk-200301)。

摘　　要：目的 探讨西宁市流行性感冒发病数与气象因素的关系。方法 采用零膨胀负二项回归模型分析2012-2019年期间西宁市的日平均气温、日温差、日平均气压、日平均相对湿度、日平均风速、日照时数和日蒸发量等气象因素对流行性感冒日发病数的影响。结果 模型负二项分布部分结果显示,日平均气温(β=-0.104,95%CI:-0.112~-0.096)、日平均相对湿度(β=-0.015,95%CI:-0.022~-0.008)、日平均风速(β=0.467,95%CI:0.388~0.546)和日照时数(β=-0.032,95%CI:-0.062~-0.001)对流行性感冒日发病数的影响具有统计学意义。模型零膨胀分布部分结果显示,日平均相对湿度(γ=-0.188,95%CI:-0.303~-0.072)、日平均风速(γ=-1.452,95%CI:-2.663~-0.242)和日蒸发量(γ=-0.321,95%CI:-0.636~-0.005)对流行性感冒发生概率的影响具有统计学意义。结论 日平均气温、日温度差、日平均相对湿度、日平均风速和日蒸发量等气象因素与流行性感冒发生有密切关系,可考虑将气象因素应用于流行性感冒的实际防控工作中。Objective To explore the association of meteorological factors with the incidence of influenza in Xining, China. Methods The zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was used to analyze the effects of meteorological factors(including daily mean air temperature, daily temperature difference, daily mean air pressure, daily mean relative humidity, daily mean wind speed, daily sunshine duration, and daily evaporation on the daily number of influenza cases from 2012 to 2019. Results The negative binomial distribution part of the model showed that the daily mean air temperature(β =-0.104,95% CI:-0.112~-0.096), daily mean relative humidity(β =-0.015,95% CI:-0.022~-0.008), daily mean wind speed(β = 0.467,95% CI:0.388~0.546) and daily sunshine duration(β =-0.032,95% CI:-0.062~-0.001) significantly affected the daily number of influenza cases. The zero-inflated distribution part of the model showed that the daily mean relative humidity(γ =-0.188,95% CI:-0.303~-0.072), daily mean wind speed(γ =-1.452,95% CI:-2.663~-0.242) and daily evaporation(γ =-0.321,95% CI:-0.636~-0.005) was statistically significant for the effect on incident of influenza. Conclusion Daily mean air temperature, daily temperature difference, daily mean relative humidity, daily mean wind speed and daily evaporation may associate with the incidence of influenza, meteorological factors might be considered to be performed in practical prevention and control efforts for influenza.

关 键 词：流行性感冒 气象因素 零膨胀负二项回归模型 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]