基于实地调研的中国西南地区不同震级人员死亡数量研究  

Study of the Relationship between Fatality and Earthquake Magnitudes in Southwest China Based on Pre-earthquake Survey

作　　者：范熙伟 聂高众[1,2] 邓砚 夏朝旭[1,2] 李华玥 Fan Xiwei;Nie Gaozhong;Deng Yan;Xia Chaoxu;Li Huayue(Key Laboratory of Seismic and Volcanic Hazards,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China;Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China;China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震与火山灾害重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029 [3]中国地震台网中心,北京100045

出　　处：《中国地震》2022年第3期537-549,共13页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：中国地震局地质研究所中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项“地震和次生地质灾害分区致死性评估技术研究”(IGCEA2106)资助。

摘　　要：地震是造成人员死亡最严重的自然灾害之一,震后对人员死亡等灾情的快速评估是地震应急响应和救援的关键。总结经验发现,在地震前进行预评估工作是提高震后灾情快速评估精度和时效性的有效手段。通过对62次发生在我国西南地区的历史震例分析后发现,当地震震级小于4.5级时,基本不会造成人员死亡情况。本研究利用我国云南和四川部分区县的实地调研数据,发现地震人员死亡数与震级存在指数函数关系,由此构建了针对各个区县的地震人员死亡人数指数函数估算模型,并计算了回归系数。基于该模型,获得了5.0~8.0级地震人员死亡数查找表(以0.5级为间隔),用于辅助震后快速评估工作。Earthquake is one of the most serious natural disasters that has caused great casualties in China. The rapid assessment of casualties after earthquake is the key to earthquake emergency response. The pre-assessment survey before earthquake is an effective means to improve the accuracy of post-earthquake rapid assessment. Through analysis of 62 historical earthquakes in the western region of China,we found that the earthquakes with magnitude less than 4. 5 would not cause death. In this study we used the pre-evaluation data of some districts and counties in Yunnan and Sichuan Province to develop an exponential function relationship between the number of deaths and the magnitude of the earthquake,to construct the exponential function relationship for each district and county,and then to calculate the regression coefficient. Based on the above results,the relations of earthquake casualties with magnitude 5. 0 to 8. 0 have been obtained at intervals of magnitude 0. 5,which can be used to assist the rapid assessment after the earthquake.

关 键 词：地震震级 地震死亡人数 震前评估 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]