基于信息量-逻辑回归耦合模型的玛纳斯河流域地质灾害易发性评价  

ASSESSMENT OF THE SUSCEPTIBILITY TO GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS IN THE MANAS RIVER BASIN BASED ON THE COUPLED INFORMATION VALUE-LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL

作　　者：毕结昂 徐佩华[1] 宋盛渊[1] 丁锐 BI Jie'ang;XU Peihua;SONG Shengyuan;DING Rui(College of Construction Engineering,Jilin University,Changchun 130026,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学,建设工程学院,长春130026

出　　处：《工程地质学报》2022年第5期1549-1560,共12页Journal of Engineering Geology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(资助号:42177139).

摘　　要：本文以地质灾害多发的新疆玛纳斯河流域作为研究区,在剖析了信息量模型、逻辑回归模型在地质灾害易发性评价中各自的优势与局限性的基础上,探索了信息量-逻辑回归耦合模型的科学性与优势;基于该区域地质环境与最新地质灾害数据,选取地形起伏度、坡度、坡向、土地利用类型、地层岩性、地形湿度指数(TWI)、河流、断层、高程9个影响因素作为评价因子,以全区355处地质灾害点为样本数据,在进行评价因子分析的基础上,通过ArcGIS平台对玛纳斯河流域进行了地质灾害易发性评价。评价结果表明,地质灾害高易发区主要分布于流域南部中低山丘陵地区,高易发区与较高易发区的面积分别为1760 km^(2)、2200 km^(2),占研究区总面积7.98%、9.97%。经检验评价精度高达91.3%,该研究可为当地地质灾害防治与国土空间规划提供重要参考。The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang have many geological disasters.This paper takes this area as the study area.It analyze the respective advantages and limitations of the information model and logistic regression model in the evaluation of the susceptibility to geological disasters.It explores and proposes the information-logistics model.Evaluation influencing factors include elevation,terrain relief,slope,slope aspect,terrain wetness index(TWI),lithology,water system,fault,and land use type.This study takes 355 geological disaster points in the whole region as sample data and analyses the characteristics of evaluation factors.Finally,the susceptibility of geological disasters is evaluated in the Manas River Basin through the ArcGIS platform.The evaluation results show that the high-risk area and the high-risk area are concentrated in the low-mountain and hilly areas in the southern part of the basin.The high-prone zone covers an area of 1,760 square kilometers,7.98%of the total area of the study area.The low-risk area covers an area of 2,200 square kilometers,9.97%of the total area of the study area.The evaluation accuracy is as high as 91.3%.These results can provide important reference for local geological disaster prevention and national land space planning.

关 键 词：地质灾害 易发性 信息量 逻辑回归 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]