地源热泵BOT项目特许经营期决策模型  

Decision Model of Ground Source Heat Pump BOT Project during Franchise Period

作　　者：刘进军[1] 高林朝[2] 邢俊敏[1] 马少魁 杜晓康 Liu Jinjun;Gao Linchao;Xing Junmin;Ma shaokui;Du Xiaokang(Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou,450046;Energy Research Institute of Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou,450008)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学,郑州450046 [2]河南省科学院能源研究所有限公司,郑州450008

出　　处：《制冷与空调（四川）》2022年第5期757-762,共6页Refrigeration and Air Conditioning

基　　金：河南省重点科技攻关项目(182102210075,132102310057)。

摘　　要：针对地源热泵BOT项目特许经营期的决策问题,以某高校地源热泵BOT项目为例,先用净现值法构建数学模型,计算项目特许经营期可行域,再利用博弈论中的Nash讨价还价理论,引入风险分配因子,构建特许经营期计算模型,最后求得特许经营期Nash均衡解。提出的决策模型均衡了项目风险与收益,提高了决策的准确性和合理性,研究结论为地源热泵行业BOT项目特许经营期的决策提供参考。Aiming at the decision-making problem of the ground source heat pump BOT project during the franchise period,taking the ground source heat pump BOT project of a university as an example,the mathematical model was firstly constructed by using the net present value method to calculate the franchise period feasible area.By using Nash bargaining theory in game theory,the risk distribution factor is introduced,the franchise period calculation model is constructed,and the Nash equilibrium solution of franchise period is obtained.The decision model balances project risks and benefits,and improves the accuracy and rationality of decision making.The research conclusion provides reference for decision making of BOT projects in the concession period of the ground source heat pump industry.

关 键 词：地源热泵 BOT模式 特许经营期 博弈论 Nash讨价还价理论 

分 类 号：TB65[一般工业技术—制冷工程]