农业生产性服务业政策的效应评估与机制分析  

Evaluation and Mechanism Analysis on the Effect of Agricultural Producer Services Policy

作　　者：马楠[1] MA Nan(School of Economics,South-Central Minzu University,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第6期12-22,共11页Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20CMZ028)。

摘　　要：将粮食主产区163个地级市中部分地区先行实施农业生产性服务业政策视为一次准自然实验,采用双重差分法评估了农业生产性服务业政策对农业发展的因果效应、异质性以及影响机制。研究表明:农业生产性服务业政策既能有效促进农业发展也能优化调整地区产业结构,并通过了平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验以及因变量滞后一期的稳健性检验;政策效应异质性显著,山区强于非山区,农业规模较大地区强于小规模地区,政策效应伴随着农业发展水平提升而不断降低,表现出“益贫不益富”特点;政策主要通过发展生产托管、培育服务组织和引入现代化生产要素等机制释放政策红利,进而实现推动农业发展的目标。Taking the introduction and implementation of agricultural producer services policies in some of the 163 cities in major grain producing areas as a quasi-natural experiment.By using a DID(Difference in Difference)method to identify the impact of the causal effect,heterogeneity and influence mechanism of agricultural producer services policy on agricultural development in major grain producing areas.The research results were as follows:Firstly,policies not only effectively promoted agricultural development,but also optimized regional industrial structure,and the results passed the parallel trend test,placebo test and the robustness test of lagging one period of dependent variables.Secondly,the heterogeneity of policy effect was significant,the policy effect of agricultural development in mountainous areas was stronger than that in non-mountainous areas,the policy effect on new agricultural management entities wasstronger than that on smallholders,and the policy effect decreased continuously with the improvement of agricultural development level,showing the characteristics of“benefit the poor but not the rich”.In addition,the policy released the policy dividends mainly through the mechanisms suchas promoting production trusteeship,cultivating service organizations and introducing modern factors of production,so as to achieve the goal of promoting agricultural development.

关 键 词：农业生产性服务 农业发展 政策效果 准自然实验 

分 类 号：F326.6[经济管理—产业经济]