城镇居民山东大米消费意愿分析——基于山东省16市3年1936份调研数据  

Analysis on Willingness of Urban Residents Consuming Shandong Rice Based on 1 936 Survey Data of 16 Cities in Shandong Province for Three Years

作　　者：王娜娜 周学标[1] 李新华[1,2] 刘延忠[1] 李景岭[1] Wang Nana;Zhou Xuebiao;Li Xinhua;Liu Yanzhong;Li Jingling(Institute of Wetland Agriculture and Ecology,Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Jinan 250100,China;Institute of Modern Agriculture of Yellow River Delta,Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Jinan 250100,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省农业科学院湿地农业与生态研究所,山东济南250100 [2]山东省农业科学院黄河三角洲现代农业研究院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《山东农业科学》2022年第10期161-165,共5页Shandong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：山东省水稻产业技术体系项目(SDAIT-17-09);山东省农业科学院农业科技创新工程项目(CXGC2022C07);山东省重点研发计划(重大科技创新工程)项目(2020CXGC010804)。

摘　　要：研究山东省城镇居民大米消费行为,对于反映大米市场需求方向,引领稻米产业提质增效并提高有效供给,制定科学合理的大米产业营销策略,促进山东省稻米产业高质量发展具有重要意义。本研究以山东省内16个市3年定点调查获取的1 936份问卷为基础,运用描述性统计及二元Logistic回归计量分析方法,研究城镇居民大米消费、购买行为及山东大米消费意愿影响因素。主要结论如下:第一,山东省城镇居民未来大米消费意愿增加,但是购买山东大米的意愿及比例均存在明显下降趋势;第二,有购买山东大米经历的消费者,未来增加山东大米消费量的可能性越大;第三,受访者平时大米消费的价格越高,未来购买山东大米的概率越低;第四,家庭中以大米做主食的居民,未来越有可能增加山东大米的消费量,但是越喜欢吃大米的人越不愿意购买山东大米;第五,已婚居民家庭未来山东大米消费量增加的可能性较高;第六,收入越高未来山东大米家庭消费量增加的可能性越高,而家庭支出中用于买米的支出越高,未来山东大米家庭消费量增加的可能性越低。山东稻米产业发展应着力改变以往“散户、散种、散销”的局面,以龙头企业为抓手,组建合作经营组织,实行规模化生产,“抱团”闯市场,打造山东大米现代化产业链和知名品牌,提高市场认可度和品牌竞争力。Studying the rice consuming behavior of urban residents in Shandong Province was of great significance to reflecting market demand direction of rice, leading rice industry to improve quality and efficiency and improving effective supply, formulating scientific and reasonable rice industry marketing strategies, and promoting high-quality development of rice industry in Shandong Province. Based on the three-year fixed-point survey of 1 936 questionnaires from 16 cities in Shandong Province, we studied the factors influencing rice consuming and purchasing behaviors and Shandong rice consuming intention of urban residents by using descriptive statistical analysis and binary Logistic regression model. The main conclusions were as follows. First, the willingness of urban residents to consume rice in Shandong Province in the future increased, but the willingness and proportion of purchasing Shandong rice had an obvious downward trend. Second, the consumers who had experience in buying Shandong rice were more likely to increase consumption of Shandong rice in the future. Third, the higher the usual rice consumption price of respondents’ was, the lower the probability of purchasing Shandong rice was in the future. Fourth, the residents who made rice as staple food in their families were more likely to increase the consumption of Shandong rice in the future, but the more they liked to eat rice, the less they were willing to buy Shandong rice. Fifth, married residents’ families were more likely to increase consumption of Shandong rice in the future. Sixth, the higher income they had, the higher possibility the households increased to consume Shandong rice in the future. On the contrary, the higher the household had expenditured for buying rice, the lower possibility they increased Shandong rice consumption in the future. Finally, based on the above research conclusions, policy recommendations for the development of Shandong rice industry were given. We should strive to change the previous situation of “retail investor

关 键 词：城镇居民 山东大米 购买行为 消费意愿 影响因素 

分 类 号：F047.3[经济管理—政治经济学]