基于Super-SBM模型的几内亚湾农业生态效率及其影响因素分析  

An Analysis of Agricultural Ecological Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in the Gulf of Guinea Based on Super-SBM Model

作　　者：吴其玥 吴兆丹[1,2] 瞿思雨 谈心阳 景晓栋 WU Qiyue;WU Zhaodan;QV Siyu;TAN Xinyang;JING Xiaodong

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,常州213022 [2]教育部几内亚湾科特迪瓦研究中心,常州213022

出　　处：《世界农业》2022年第11期47-59,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“绿色发展下我国水资源能源粮食协同发展与安全战略研究”(19ZDA084)。

摘　　要：几内亚湾对非洲农业生产有着较大贡献,其农业生产总值约占非洲的1/4。但该区域农业生产存在经营粗放、管理低下、技术支持缺乏等问题,影响区域可持续发展。本文构建Super-SBM模型对几内亚湾十国农业生态效率进行测算,并基于Tobit模型分析各国农业生态效率的影响因素,结果显示:(1)几内亚湾十国1990—2019年的年均农业生态效率值总体均呈波动下降趋势,且在规模报酬不变(CRS)和规模报酬可变(VRS)下的效率值分别自2014年、2015年起连续下降;(2)基于CRS和VRS平均农业生态效率值排序中,加蓬、科特迪瓦、加纳、喀麦隆、利比里亚和赤道几内亚六国的排名稳定不变,其余国家的平均值排序在两个模型中有不同程度的变化;(3)城镇化水平在5%显著性水平上对区域农业生态效率呈现正向影响,灌溉面积、复种指数在1%显著性水平上呈正向影响。继而本文对改善几内亚湾农业生态效率提出建议:(1)各国因地制宜,实现绿色发展;(2)稳定推进城镇化,促进城乡协调发展;(3)加大基础设施如农业灌溉用水的投资建设;(4)因地制宜推进对几内亚湾十国的农业技术援助和培训。The Gulf of Guinea has a great contribution to Africa’s agricultural production,and its agricultural GDP accounts for about 1/4 of Africa.However,there are problems in agricultural production in this region,such as extensive management,low management and lack of technical support,which affect regional sustainable development.Super-SBM model was constructed to calculate the agricultural ecological efficiency of ten countries in the Gulf of Guinea,and the influencing factors of agricultural ecological efficiency were analyzed based on Tobit model.The results showed that:(1)The average annual agricultural ecological efficiency values of the ten countries in the Gulf of Guinea from 1990 to 2019 showed a fluctuating downward trend,and the efficiency values under constant returns to scale(CRS)and variable returns to scale(VRS)decreased continuously since 2014 and 2015,respectively.(2)Based on the ranking of CRS and VRS average agricultural ecological efficiency,the rankings of Gabon,C8 te d’Ivoire,Ghana,Cameroon,Liberia and Equatorial Guinea are stable.Other countries have varying degrees of change in the two models.(3)The urbanization level is at the 5%significant level,and the irrigation area and multiple cropping index have a positive impact on the regional agricultural ecological efficiency at the 1%significant level.Then it puts forward some suggestions to improve the ecological efficiency of agriculture in the Gulf of Guinea:(1)Countries should adjust measures to local conditions to achieve green development.(2)Steadily promoting urbanization and promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.(3)Increase investment in infrastructure such as agricultural irrigation water.(4)Promote agricultural technical assistance and training to the ten countries of the Gulf of Guinea.

关 键 词：几内亚湾 Super-SBM 生态效率 TOBIT 影响因素 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F313