基于AHP-FCE的辐射事故应急演习评估研究  

Evaluation of radiation accident emergency drill based on AHP-FCE

作　　者：孟凡兴[1,2] 杨明 王浩[1,2] 孙禄建 房江奇 杨金政 MENG Fanxing;YANG Ming;WANG Hao;SUN Lujian;FANG Jiangqi;YANG Jinzheng(Airborne Survey and Remote Sensing Center of Nuclear Industry,Shijiazhuang 050000,China;China Nuclear Emergency Aviation Monitoring Engineering Technology Research Center,Shijiazhuang 050000,China)

机构地区：[1]核工业航测遥感中心,石家庄050000 [2]中核核应急航空监测工程技术研究中心,石家庄050000

出　　处：《核技术》2022年第11期68-77,共10页Nuclear Techniques

基　　金：国防科工局"十三五"核能开发科研项目资助。

摘　　要：为提升辐射事故应急演习质量、实时评估演习效果,在构建辐射事故应急演习评估指标体系的基础上,将层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)与模糊综合评价法(Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation,FCE)有机结合,建立辐射事故应急演习评估模型。该模型根据辐射事故应急演习流程,综合演习准备、演习实施、演习总结阶段,形成了以辐射事故应急演习效果为总目标,下设5个一级指标和15个二级指标的辐射事故应急演习评估体系;通过AHP进行指标权重分配,采用FCE进行计算排序,实现对辐射事故应急演习的综合评估。通过实例验证表明,AHP-FCE模型具有良好的适应性与合理性,对辐射事故应急演习评估有很好的应用价值。[Background]The radiation accident emergency drill is an important way to maintain and improve the response ability of emergency organizations,but at present,the evaluation of the drill is mainly based on the qualitative evaluation of the surface performance of the key links,there is not yet a systematic,full-flow,accurate and targeted evaluation method of exercises.[Purpose]This study aims to improve the quality and real-time evaluation of radiation accident emergency drill.[Methods]Firstly,the alternative evaluation indicators were summarized on the basis of literature survey.The method of expert investigation was used to check the alternative indexes and establish the evaluation index system.Then,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method was applied to the calculation of weight distribution,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)was employed to build comprehensive evaluation model for radiation accident emergency exercises.Finally,based on the AHP-PCE,comprehensive scores of the evaluation indexes at all levels of three typical examples were calculated.[Results]The FCE-based model synthesizes the stage of the drill preparation,the drill implementation and the drill summary,and forms the general goal of the radiation accident emergency drill effect.The evaluation system of radiation accident emergency maneuver is set up with 5 first-level indexes and 15 s-level indexes to realize the comprehensive evaluation of the radiation accident emergency drill.[Conclusions]The example verification shows that the AHP-FCE model has a good adaptability and rationality,and has a good application value in the evaluation of radiation accident emergency drill.

关 键 词：层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 辐射事故应急演习 综合评估 

分 类 号：TL73[核科学技术—辐射防护及环境保护]