京津冀地区再现三河-平谷8.0级地震的人员伤亡分析  

Analysis of casualties of the Sanhe-Pinggu MS8.0 earthquake reproduced in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

作　　者：姜鹏飞 张桂欣[1,2] 陈相兆 孙柏涛[1,2] JIANG Pengfei;ZHANG Guixin;CHEN Xiangzhao;SUN Baitao(Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,CEA,Harbin 150080,China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation,Ministry of Emergency Management,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]地震灾害防治应急管理部重点实验室,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2022年第4期1-7,共7页World Earthquake Engineering

基　　金：中国地震局工程力学研究所基本科研业务费专项资助项目(2021EEEVL0210);国家重点研发计划课题(2019YFC1509301);中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室重点专项(2019EEEV0103)。

摘　　要：京津冀地区1679年曾发生三河-平谷8.0级大地震,造成了严重的人员伤亡,严重影响当时的社会经济。本文对三河-平谷8.0级地震进行原地再现,分析所造成的人员伤亡。首先,基于最新的建筑物竣工面积统计资料更新建筑物公里网格数据,基于普查数据对人口公里网格进行了更新,并采用热力图对人口的时空流动进行了预测,得到了符合当地特征的承灾体的数量和分布。在此基础上,采用分区分类地震易损性模型和人员伤亡评估模型,对京津冀地区遭受三河-平谷8.0级设定地震的人员伤亡进行了分析。分析结果表明:京津冀地区现今的人口数量相对于1679年成百倍增加,但人员伤亡率大幅降低。In 1679,the Sanhe⁃Pinggu M_(S)8.0 earthquake occurred in the Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebei region,which caused serious casualties and seriously affected the social economy at that time.In this paper,the Sanhe⁃Pinggu M_(S)8.0 earthquake is reproduced in situ and the casualties caused by it are analyzed.Firstly,the building kilometer grid data was updated based on the latest statistical data of completed building area,and the population kilometer grid was updated based on census data,and the temporal and spatial flow of population was predicted by using ther⁃mal map,and the number and distribution of disaster bearing bodies consistent with local characteristics were ob⁃tained.On this basis,the vulnerability model and casualty assessment model were used to analyze the casualties caused by the Sanhe⁃Pinggu M_(S)8.0 scenario earthquake in The Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebeiregion.The results show that the population of the Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebei region has increased 100 times compared with that in 1679,but the ca⁃sualty rate has decreased significantly.

关 键 词：三河-平谷地震 京津冀 人口热力图 易损性 人员伤亡 

分 类 号：TU375.4[建筑科学—结构工程]