信息披露违规处罚、连锁董事公司分析师预测与分析师声誉:基于董事网络的溢出效应  

Regulatory Penalty for Information Disclosure,Analysts’ Forecast of Interlocked Director Firms and Analyst Reputation:Spillover Effect Based on Director Network

作　　者：丁鑫[1] 陆阳 杨忠海 DIN Xin;LU Yang;YANG Zhong-hai

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院 [2]哈尔滨商业大学会计学院 [3]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2022年第11期65-76,共12页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目“宏观经济政策与会计信息质量及披露违规处罚溢出效应研究”(项目编号:307CFJ1900905)。

摘　　要：本文基于中国证监会对上市公司监管处罚公告的数据统计,研究信息披露违规处罚公告对连锁董事公司分析师预测的影响以及分析师声誉的调节效应。实证研究发现,公司发生信息披露违规处罚后,分析师对其连锁董事公司的盈余预测准确性显著降低。明星分析师发挥负面的调节效应,与非明星分析师相比,明星分析师对连锁董事公司预测准确性更低。进一步研究发现,信息披露违规处罚引发资本市场对连锁董事公司的负面反应;分析师对连锁董事公司盈余预测的正向偏差显著增大,与非明星分析师相比,明星分析师对连锁董事公司盈余预测的正向偏差更大;分析师包括明星分析师与非明星分析师对连锁董事公司盈余预测的负向偏差无显著变化。本文不仅丰富监管处罚的溢出效应研究,对于防范资本市场中潜在的金融风险,提高分析师声誉激励机制的有效性具有重要启示。Based on China Securities Regulatory Commission statistics on penalties for Chinese listed companies, this paper studies the impact of information disclosure violation penalties on analysts’ forecast accuracy of interlocked director firms, and the moderating effect of analysts’ reputation.The empirical study finds that the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecast of the interlocked director firms decreases significantly after the company is punished for information disclosure violation penalty.Moreover, star analysts have a negative moderating effect on the relationship between the information disclosure violation penalty and the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts.Compared with non-star analysts, star analysts have lower prediction accuracy for interlocked director firms.Further study found that the information disclosure violation penalty caused the negative reaction of capital market to the interlocked director firms.The positive bias of analysts’ earnings forecast for interlocked director firms increases significantly, and the positive bias of star analysts’ earnings forecast for interlocked director firms is greater than that of non-star analysts.Analysts, including star analysts, have no significant influence on the negative bias of earnings forecast of interlocked director firms.This paper not only enriches the research on the spillover effect of regulatory penalties, but also has important implications for preventing potential financial risks in the capital market and improving the effectiveness of analysts’ reputation incentive mechanism.

关 键 词：信息披露违规处罚 连锁董事 溢出效应 分析师预测 明星分析师 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]