基于博弈论综合权重的大坝群系统失效概率分析方法  

Failure Probability Analysis Method of Dam Group System Based on Comprehensive Weight of the Algorithmic Game Theory

作　　者：黄梦婧 杨海浪 HUANG Mengjing;YANG Hailang(Anhui Water Conservancy Technical College,Hefei 231603,China;Anhui Provincial Group Limited for Yangtze-to-huaihe Water Diversion,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽水利水电职业技术学院,安徽合肥231603 [2]安徽省引江济淮集团有限公司,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《浙江水利水电学院学报》2022年第5期35-39,46,共6页Journal of Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2021A1458)。

摘　　要：在大坝群系统中,单个大坝的差异性会给整个大坝群系统带来不同程度的影响。为明确大坝群系统整体失效风险,在分析单坝失效概率基础上,研究大坝群系统失效概率分析方法。运用层次分析法与粗糙集分析方法相结合的大坝综合权重博弈论分析方法,确定单个大坝在大坝群系统中的综合权重,采用“k/N”系统可靠度分析模型确定大坝群系统整体失效概率。以安徽省境内某大坝群为例,建立了该大坝群的层次结构,确定了各个大坝综合权重,计算得到了某大坝群系统整体的失效概率。In a dam group system,the difference of a single dam will have varying degrees of impact on the whole dam group system.In order to determine the overall failure risk of a dam group system,the failure probability analysis method of dam group system is studied based on the failure probability analysis of a single dam.The algorithmic game theory analysis method of dam comprehensive weight,combined with analytic hierarchy process and rough set analysis method,is used to determine the comprehensive weight of a single dam in dam group system,and the“k/N”system reliability analysis model is used to determine the overall failure probability of the dam group system.Based on a dam group in Anhui Province,the hierarchical structure of the dam group is established,the comprehensive weight of each dam is determined,and the overall failure probability of a dam group system is calculated.

关 键 词：大坝群 失效概率 层次分析法 粗糙集 博弈论 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]