女性就业与中国经济周期  

Female Employment and China’s Business Cycle

作　　者：陈利锋 王凯风[3] 林柳琳 Chen Lifeng;Wang Kaifeng;Lin Liulin

机构地区：[1]广东省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心省委党校研究基地,广州510053 [2]中共广东省委党校粤港澳大湾区研究院 [3]广东省社会科学院环境与发展研究所,广州510635 [4]中共广州市委党校习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心,广州510040

出　　处：《广东社会科学》2022年第6期23-33,280,281,共13页Social Sciences in Guangdong

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区项目“生态约束与外资驱动下全要素能源效率提升研究:基于能源—经济—环境系统的分析框架”(项目号72164008);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“广东省城市绿色发展绩效量化测算及空间关联研究”(项目号GD19CYJ04)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：构建包含就业性别差异的动态随机一般均衡模型,考察了女性就业对中国经济周期波动产生的影响。参数贝叶斯估计的结果显示,女性劳动力就业弹性、名义工资刚性以及女性劳动力之间的替代弹性均显著大于男性劳动力。这些差异意味着在外生冲击影响宏观经济时,女性劳动力更容易选择进入或退出劳动力市场,进而导致女性就业与男性就业对劳动力市场乃至宏观经济产生的影响存在明显差异。动态分析的结果表明:女性劳动力供给冲击对宏观经济的影响显著大于男性劳动力供给冲击。女性相对劳动生产率上升在引起产出增加的同时对劳动力市场产生“紧缩”效应。女性就业相关因素是驱动中国经济周期波动的重要力量。因此,无论是从宏观经济政策的实施效果还是稳定宏观经济考量,稳定女性就业均是相对较好的政策选择。In this paper, we propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with gender difference, and investigate the impacts of female employment on China’s business cycle. The result of Bayesian estimate shows that the employment elasticity of female, nominal wage rigidities and the substitution elasticity between female workers are significantly different from male workers. These differences implies that female may enter or exit the labor market when exogenous shocks hit the macro-economy, which leads to different performance of labor market and macro-economy from male employment. The results of dynamic analysis show, the macroeconomic impacts of female labor supply shocks are much stronger than male labor supply shocks. The rise of female relative productivity may lead to tighten effects of labor market. And female employment related factors play a very important role in driving China’s business cycle. So we argue that stabilizing female employment is a reasonable choice for promoting the effects of macroeconomic policies and for the purpose of stabilizing macro-economy.

关 键 词：女性就业 经济周期 宏观经济波动 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学] F240