在供给不再充裕的情况下需求管理政策将何去何从?  

Where will the Demand Management Policy Go when the Supply is no Longer Abundant?

作　　者：阿古斯汀·卡斯滕斯 王宇(译)[2] Agustín Carstens;Wang Yu

机构地区：[1]国际清算银行 [2]中国人民银行研究局

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2022年第10期29-32,共4页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情前,相对稳定的地缘政治环境、科学技术进步、经济全球化和有利的人口结构等四大因素在促进世界经济增长的同时,保证了供给充裕,降低了世界通货膨胀率,从而为各国货币政策和财政政策提供了较大的操作空间。而新冠肺炎疫情和俄乌冲突警示我们,供给已不再充裕,供给的脆弱性和通货膨胀对供给约束的敏感性也不容忽视。当前,许多抑制通货膨胀的总供给因素正在发生变化,而一些不利于供给增长的因素也正在出现和发展,此轮世界性通货膨胀压力可能更加持久。因此,在供给不再充裕的情况下,依赖需求管理工具来刺激经济增长的做法已经不再可行,各国需要对现行宏观经济政策进行反思和调整,应该以增加供给为重点,在经济安全与经济效率之间寻找新的平衡点。Before COVID-19,four major factors such as a relatively stable geopolitical environment,scientific and technological progress,economic globalization and favorable demographics promoted world economic growth while ensuring abundant supply and lowering world inflation,thus providing countries with greater room to maneuver for monetary and fiscal policies.While the epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict warn us that supply is no longer abundant,and that the vulnerability of supply and the sensitivity of inflation to supply constraints cannot be ignored.Currently,many of the aggregate supply factors that inhibit inflation are changing,while some factors that are not conducive to supply growth are emerging and developing,and this round of worldwide inflationary pressures may be more persistent.Therefore,with supply no longer abundant,it is no longer feasible to rely on demand management tools to stimulate economic growth,and countries need to rethink and adjust their current macroeconomic policies,which should focus on increasing supply and finding a new equilibrium between economic security and economic efficiency.

关 键 词：宏观经济政策 供给充裕 供给脆弱性 通货膨胀 需求管理政策 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]