气候变化对雅鲁藏布江流域植被动态的影响机制  

Impact mechanism of climate change on vegetation dynamics in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

作　　者：左德鹏[1,2] 韩煜娜 徐宗学 李佩君[1,2] ZUO Depeng;HAN Yuna;XU Zongxue;LI Peijun(College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第6期1-8,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3201104,2021YFC3201502);国家自然科学基金(91647202);清华大学水沙科学水利水电工程国家重点实验室及宁夏银川水联网数字治水联合研究院联合开放基金(sklhse-2022-Iow07)。

摘　　要：基于雅鲁藏布江流域1981—2015年长时间序列植被、降水、气温和干旱数据集,采用非参数统计方法Sen s slope和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法识别了各要素时空变化特征,采用Pearson相关性分析和地统计学方法分析了植被覆盖对气候变化响应的时滞效应,探讨了气候变化对植被动态的影响机制。结果表明:归一化植被指数(NDVI)大体由上游至下游呈逐渐增大的空间分布特征,且中游部分地区植被有所改善,下游地区存在一定退化现象;流域上游主要受气温影响呈干旱化,中游和下游地区受降水影响趋于暖湿化;流域上游和中游地区NDVI与降水和干旱呈显著正相关关系,且主要在滞后1月时相关性最高,中游及下游东南部NDVI与气温呈显著负相关关系,滞后0~3月的区域均有分布。Based on the long time series vegetation,precipitation,temperature and drought data sets of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1981 to 2015,the non-parametric statistical methods Sen s slope and Mann-Kendall trend test were used to identify the spatio-temporal change characteristics of each element.Pearson correlation analysis and geostatistical method were used to analyze the time lag effect of vegetation cover response to climate change,and the impact mechanism of climate change on vegetation dynamics was discussed.The results show that the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)is generally increasing in spatial distribution from upstream to downstream,and the vegetation in some regions of the middle reaches has improved,while there is some degradation in the lower reaches.The upper reaches of the basin are mainly affected by temperature and become arid,while the middle reaches and lower reaches tend to become warm and humid due to precipitation.NDVI in the upper and middle reaches of the basin has a significant positive correlation with precipitation and drought,and the correlation is highest mainly when it lags behind 1 month.NDVI in the middle reaches and southeast of the lower reaches has a significant negative correlation with temperature,and it is distributed in areas that lag behind 0 to 3 months.

关 键 词：气候变化 干旱 植被动态 时滞效应 雅鲁藏布江流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]