基于大气环流和海温场的降水组合预报模型  

A precipitation combined forecasting model based on atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature

作　　者：吴旭树 王兆礼[1] 陈柯兵 钱姝妮 王俊 陈晓宏 WU Xushu;WANG Zhaoli;CHEN Kebing;QIAN Shuni;WANG Jun;CHEN Xiaohong(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China;Hydrologic Bureau of Yangtze River Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519000,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510640 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [3]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [4]中山大学土木工程学院,广东珠海519000

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第6期81-87,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(52109019);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2019M662919,2020M682478);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2021A1515010935)。

摘　　要：针对降水具有混沌性和随机性,准确进行长期降水预报难度高的问题,提出时变海温多极指数和因子预报意见指数,基于大气环流和海温场构建长期降水组合预报模型,以三峡水库流域为例进行了验证。结果表明:组合预报模型在三峡水库流域1961—2020年汛期的月降水预报中有较好的适用性,特别在6月和9月降水预报上表现优异;与多因子回归、随机森林数理统计模型和CFSv2、ECMWF system 4动力数值模型相比,该模型更为稳健、预报精度提高显著。In view of the chaos and randomness of precipitation and the high difficulty of accurate long-term precipitation prediction,the multiple time-varying sea-temperature index and factor prediction opinion index were proposed.Based on the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature(SST)field,a long-term combined precipitation forecasting model was constructed,which is verified by taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Basin as an example.The results show that the combined forecasting model has good applicability in the monthly precipitation forecast of the flood season from 1961 to 2020 in the Three Gorges Reservoir Basin,especially in June and September.Compared with multi-factor regression,random forest mathematical statistical model and CFSv2,ECMWF system 4 dynamic numerical models,this model is more robust and has significantly improved prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：长期降水预报 大气环流 海温场 海温多极指数 因子预报意见指数 组合预报模型 三峡水库流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]