广东省人口老龄化与养老资源配置均衡性研究  

Research on Population Aging and Equilibrium of Elderly Care Resources Allocation in Guangdong Province

作　　者：张国英[1] 龚慧[1] ZHANG Guo-ying;GONG Hui(School of Politics and Public Administration,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006;Research Center of Education and Social Integration of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510006)

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学政治与公共管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《南方人口》2022年第4期1-13,共13页South China Population

摘　　要：本文从老年人口的空间分布及演变特征与养老资源配置均衡性之间的关系为切入点,探讨广东省人口老龄化及养老资源配置的区域差异特征。主要利用空间自相关分析方法,分析广东省各市2000年、2010年、2020年人口老龄化时空演变特征;以2020年截面数据为基础,运用熵值法与差异系数等客观赋权方法,评价广东省各市的养老资源总量;使用基于地理集中度构建的不一致指数,探究广东省各市老龄化水平与养老资源配置间的不一致性。研究发现,广东省人口老龄化程度正不断加深,且存在明显的区域差异,在空间分布上具有一定的关联性,呈现集聚趋势;养老资源配置在各区域间并不均衡,与老龄化水平间具有一定的匹配关系,即老年人口越集聚的地方,养老资源也更加趋于集中,但匹配度不高。珠三角地区养老资源最为丰富,粤北、粤西等地区多数城市面临养老资源不足、无法满足老年人正常养老需求的问题,老龄化形势严峻。This paper discusses the regional differences in the aging population and the allocation of elderly care resources by the contrast of the aging population’s spatial distribution and the evolution in characteristic of elderly population to estimate the regional balance of elderly care resources allocation in Guangdong Priince.At first,the spatial auto-correlation analysis methods is used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of population aging in Guangdong Province based on the data of 2000,2010 and 2020.Then the total amount of elderly care resources in various cities of Guangdong Province is evaluated based on the cross-sectional data of 2020 by objective empowerment methods such as entropy method and coefficient of variation.Finally the inconsistency index based on geographical concentration is used to explore the imbalance between the aging level and the allocation of elderly care resources in Guangdong Province were explored.The findings show that the aging degree of the population in Guangdong Province is deepening with obvious regional differences,which have certain correlations in spatial distribution by a trend of population agglomeration.pm However,the allocation of elderly care resources is not balanced among the regions with an low and initial matching with the aging level of the regions.On the whole,the Pearl River Delta region is the region with most abundant elderly care resources,while the cities in the northern and the western Guangdong are facing insufficient elderly care resources and unable to meet the normal pension and support for the elderly with increasing aged population.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 养老资源 区域差异 空间匹配 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]