年龄-时期-队列视角下流动人口长期居留意愿变迁  

The Change of Long-term Residence Intention of Floating Population From the Perspective of Age-period-cohort

作　　者：李昀东 解韬 凌巍 LI Yun-dong;XIE Tao;LING Wei(School of Ethnology and Sociology,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091;Institute of International Studies,Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences,Guangzhou 510635;School of Mathematics and Big Data,Guizhou Education University,Guiyang 550018)

机构地区：[1]云南大学民族学与社会学学院,云南昆明650091 [2]广东省社会科学院国际问题研究所,广东广州510635 [3]贵州师范学院数学与大数据学院,贵州贵阳550018

出　　处：《南方人口》2022年第4期61-71,共11页South China Population

基　　金：广东省哲学社科基金“珠三角城市群城镇化与空气污染交互效应研究:基于系统动力学的视角(GD21CSH08)”;贵州省高校人文社会科学研究项目“新型城镇化背景下欠发达地区农业转移人口市民化推动路径研究—以贵州为例”(2021ZC001)。

摘　　要：流动人口的长期居留意愿综合衡量了社会变迁下的流动人口流迁的期望性选择,本文基于CMDS(2012、2014、2015、2016、2017、2018)数据,通过交叉分类的分层结构年龄-时期-队列模型(HAPC-CCREM)模型分解流动人口长期居留意愿的年龄、时期和出生队列效应,探讨社会经济变迁对长期居留意愿的影响。总体而言,我国流动人口长期居留意愿呈现下降趋势,纳入所有控制变量后,在年龄效应上呈现“U”型结构,时期效应没有表现出明显差异,在队列效应上,初代流动人口、新生代流动人口、超新生代流动人口到老年流动人口由于不同的社会变迁和流动环境,呈现出长期居留意愿上不同的效应系数。The long-term residence intention of floating population comprehensively measures the floating population’s desire to migrate under the social changes of past decades.The article,based on the data of CMDS(2012,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018),tries to decompose the effects of age,period and birth cohort on long-term residence intention of floating population by HAPC-CCREM model,and demonstrates the effects of socio-economic changes on long-term residence intention.It show that the overall floating population’s long-term residence intention is in a downward trend.However the analysis with all the control variables show that the effect of age on residence intention is a U-shape curve,the period has no significant effect,while the birth cohort has significant different effect coefficient on the floating population’s residence intentions of the first generation,new generation,super-new generation and the elderly due to different social changes and mobility environment.

关 键 词：流动人口 长期居留意愿 年龄时期队列分析 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]