影响新疆阿克苏地区棉花价格波动的因素分析  

Analysison the Factors Affecting the Fluctuation of Cotton Price in Aksu of Xinjiang

作　　者：庄林 Zhuang Lin(School of Economics and Management,Tarim University.,Aral,Xinjiang 843300,China)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《棉花科学》2022年第6期50-56,共7页Cotton Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"产业转型升级背景下新疆少数民族就业结构的演变与优化研究"(17BGL148)。

摘　　要：根据2001—2020年新疆阿克苏地区棉花价格及其各项影响因素通过政策分析和实证检验、协整检验进行分析。结果表明,棉花价格波动受多个因素影响,其中生产成本、国内消费量与阿克苏地区棉花价格呈现正相关,阿克苏地区棉花产量、年进口美棉金额、棉花进口量与阿克苏地区棉花价格呈现负相关;另外,国家政策和市场机制调节通过改变棉花供给量以及补贴也是重要影响因素。针对影响因素提出了“我国应当完善棉花期货市场,大力发展棉花全程机械化生产,继续加大对新疆棉花产区的保护力度及投资规模”等建议。According to cotton prices and its influencing factors in Aksu from 2001 to 2020,it is analyzed through policy analysis and empirical test and cointegration test. The results showed that cotton price fluctuations are affected by many factors,among which production cost and domestic consumption are positively correlated with cotton prices in Aksu,while cotton production,American cotton import price per year and cotton imports are negatively correlated with cotton prices in Aksu. In addition,national policies and market mechanism regulation are also important influencing factors by changing cotton supply and subsidies. In view of the influencing factors,the suggestions such as“China should improve the cotton futures market,vigorously develop the whole process mechanized production of cotton,and continue to increase the protection and investment scale of cotton producing areas in Xinjiang”were put forward.

关 键 词：棉花价格 阿克苏地区 新疆 影响因素 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学]