2022—2023年中国宏观经济再预测——兼论美欧经济减速对中国经济的影响  

Updated Macroeconomic Forecasts for China 2022-2023:Impact of Economic Slowdown in the US and the EU on China's Economy

作　　者：“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)”课题组 Research Team on the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(Center for Macroeconomic Research,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2022年第6期80-89,共10页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“经济特征变化下的中国减税降费政策组合研究”(20BJY231);教育部重点研究基地重大项目“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的再拓展”(17JJD790014);教育部重点研究基地重大项目“深化财税体制改革与促进中国经济平稳增长”(18JJD790007)。

摘　　要：2022年下半年,中国经济面临美欧经济减速、房地产下行、疫情扰动等多重风险,制造业投资和基建投资有望稳步增长,对经济形成重要支撑。基于中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的更新预测表明,2022年中国GDP增速预计为4.05%,较春季预测下降1.44个百分点;2023年GDP增速反弹至6.53%。2022年,CPI预计上涨1.54%,涨幅比春季预测下调0.43个百分点,2023年,CPI增速预计为2.26%。进一步,基于不同情景下的美欧经济减速对中国经济影响的模拟研究表明:2022—2023年,美欧经济出现深度衰退的可能性不大,并且美国经济增长的不确定性要高于欧元区。美欧经济温和减速,对中国经济增长的影响有限,难以造成大幅度冲击。结构方面,中国出口和制造业投资受美欧经济减速的影响相对较大。尤其是出口增速,在本就预期为负值的情况下,很可能会加速下跌,降幅翻倍。同时,和财政政策相比,货币政策在应对美欧经济减速方面的操作空间更大。In the second half of 2022, China’s economy faces multiple risks, including economic slowdown in the US and Europe, real estate downturn and repeated epidemic outbreaks. The steady growth of investment in manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to provide solid support for stable growth. Updated forecasts based on the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(CQMM) show that in 2022, China’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.05%, down 1.44 percentage points from the spring forecast, and that in 2023, GDP growth is anticipated to rebound to 6.53%. In 2022, CPI is expected to rise by 2.26%, 0.43 percentage points lower than the spring forecast, while in 2023, CPI growth is expected to reach 1.47%. In addition, this paper also simulated the impact of economic recession in the US and Europe on China’s economy in different scenarios. The results show that it is unlikely that the US and the EU will have a deep recession in 2022-2023. The US economy faces greater uncertainty than the eurozone economy. Under the assumption of a mild economic recession in the US and Europe, the impact of economic slowdown in the US and the EU on China’s economic growth is limited and will not cause a significant impact. Exports and manufacturing investment would be more affected by a mild downturn in the US and Europe. In particular, export growth, which is expected to be negative, could accelerate and double. Monetary policy has more scope than fiscal policy in countering a mild downturn in the US and the EU.

关 键 词：中国宏观经济 CQMM模型 经济预测 美欧经济减速 

分 类 号：F05[经济管理—政治经济学]