甘肃省财政支出、产业结构优化与经济增长——基于VAR模型分析  

Fiscal Expenditure,Optimization of Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in Gansu Province——Based on VAR Model

作　　者：王庆 赵丹 Wang Qing;Zhao Dan(Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Gansu Lanzhou 730020;Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学财税与公共管理学院,甘肃兰州730020 [2]中央财经大学财政税务学院,北京102206

出　　处：《河西学院学报》2022年第5期82-91,共10页Journal of Hexi University

摘　　要：文章选取甘肃省1978-2020年时间序列数据,构建VAR模型和VECM模型研究财政支出、产业结构优化与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:第一,在5%显著性水平下,甘肃财政支出、产业结构优化与经济增长之间存在协整关系。第二,给财政支出一个冲击,短期内对产业结构优化影响为负,长期内影响为正,对经济增长影响稳定为正;给产业结构优化一个冲击,短期内对经济增长和财政支出影响为负,长期内对财政支出仍具备负向刺激作用,但对经济增长产生正影响。第三,误差修正系数1对经济增长估计值调整幅度为负且最大,对产业结构优化调整幅度为正且最小;而系数2估计值对财政支出调整幅度为负且最大,对经济增长调整幅度为负且最小。建议通过合理分配财政资金、加快调整产业结构、加强财政政策与产业结构优化协同性等措施,促进甘肃省经济发展。This paper selects the time series data of Gansu Province from 1978 to 2020 and constructs VAR models and VECM models to study the relationship between fiscal spending,industrial structure optimization and economic growth. The results show that,first,there is a cointegration relationship between fiscal spending,industrial structure optimization and economic growth in Gansu at 5% significance level. Second,give a shock to fiscal spending,the impact on industrial structure optimization in the short term is negative,the long-term impact is positive,and the impact on economic growth is stable positive;give a shock to industrial structure optimization,the impact on economic growth and fiscal spending in the short term is negative,the long-term fiscal spending still has a negative stimulus effect,but a positive impact on economic growth. Third,the error correction coefficient 1 has a negative and maximum adjustment to the estimated economic growth,and a positive and minimum adjustment to the optimization of industrial structure;while the estimated coefficient 2 has a negative and maximum adjustment to fiscal expenditure,and a negative and minimum adjustment to economic growth. It is suggested to promote the economic development of Gansu Province through rational allocation of fiscal funds,accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure,and strengthening the synergy between fiscal policy and industrial structure optimization.

关 键 词：财政支出 产业结构优化 经济增长 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学]