万安水库后汛期实时防洪预报优化调度策略研究  

Research on the Forecasting-optimization Operation Strategy of Real-time Flood Control Operation of Wan’an Reservoir in Post-flood Seasons

作　　者：程颖新 何中政 陈济天 刘孟桦 熊芳金 尹恒 CHENG Ying-xin;HE Zhong-zheng;CHEN Ji-tian;LIU Meng-hua;Xiong Fang-jin;YIN Heng(School of Infrastructure Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,Jiangxi Province,China;Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resources Utilization,Ministry of Education,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,Jiangxi Province,China;Hydrological Monitoring Center of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330002,Jiangxi Province,China;Jiangxi Water Resources Institute,Nanchang 330013,Jiangxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学工程建设学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学鄱阳湖环境与资源利用教育部重点实验室,江西南昌330031 [3]江西省水文监测中心,江西南昌330002 [4]江西水利职业学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第11期66-70,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：江西省水利厅科技项目(202123YBKT01,202223YBKT43);江西省自然科学基金(20212BAB214065);江西省教育厅课题(GJJ206001)。

摘　　要：水库(群)防洪调度是目前防洪非工程措施研究的热点。随着水文预报技术的发展,结合预报信息开展水库实时防洪调度已得到了广泛应用,如何进一步结合预报信息,开展水库实时防洪预报优化调度是提升水库防洪效益相关研究的重点。为此,以水库针对下游控制点实时防洪优化调度问题为例,提出了一种实时预报优化调度策略。该策略首先通过建立预见期内考虑最大削峰准则的水库防洪预报优化调度模型,充分利用预见期内洪水预报信息开展优化调度计算,依据优化调度结果中面临时段决策指导水库实时防洪调度运行,滚动地实施前述“预报-优化-调度”过程,辅助水库开展防洪调度从而有效地拦蓄洪水。以赣江中游控制性水库万安水库对下游吉安站防洪调度为例,相关实验结果表明:①研究提出的实时预报优化调度策略在48 h洪水预见期下,相比现行后汛期防洪调度规则提高削峰率约10%,拦洪削峰效果提升显著;②开展实时防洪预报优化调度,洪水预见期至少要比洪水传播时滞多2个时段,万安水库针对下游吉安站开展防洪预报优化调度至少需要30 h有效洪水预报信息(调度时间步长为6 h);③考虑预报误差条件下,实时防洪预报优化调度策略的削峰效果存在一定程度降低,但仍显著优于现行调度规则。Reservoir(Group)flood control operation is a hot topic in the research on non-engineering flood control measures at present.With the development of hydrological prediction technology,real-time flood control operation of reservoir combined with prediction information is widely used.How to further carry out the real-time flood control forecasting-optimization operation of reservoir combined with prediction in⁃formation is the focus of relevant research on improving reservoir flood control benefits.Therefore,by taking the real-time flood control opera⁃tion of the reservoir for the downstream control points as an example,this paper puts forward a real-time forecasting-optimization operation strategy.The strategy establishes the optimal operation model of reservoir flood control operation considering the maximum peak clipping cri⁃terion in the forecast period,makes full use of the flood forecast information in the forecast period to carry out the optimal operation calcula⁃tion,guides the real-time flood control operation of the reservoir according to the decision-making of the period faced in the optimal opera⁃tion results,and rolls out the above“forecast optimization operation”process to assist the flood control operation of the reservoir,so as to ef⁃fectively retain and store the flood.Taking the flood control operation of Wan’an Reservoir in the middle reaches of Ganjiang River as an ex⁃ample,the relevant experimental results show that:①the proposed real-time forecasting-optimization operation strategy improves the flood-peak rate by about 10%compared with the current flood control operation rules under the condition of 48 h forecast period.②To carry out the real-time flood control forecasting-optimization operation,the flood prediction period shall be at least 2 more periods than the flood propagation delay.The flood control forecasting-optimization operation of Wan’an Reservoir for Ji’an Station at the downstream needs at least 30 h effective flood forecasting information(when the oper

关 键 词：防洪调度 预报优化调度 万安水库 逐步优化算法(POA) 

分 类 号：TV697.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]