基于清单编制法的中国碳市场免费碳配额分布平衡分析  

Analysis of Carbon Allowances Balance in China’s Carbon Market Based on Inventory Compilation Method

作　　者：赵宏兴 乔中鹏 冯田丰 郭树森 王硕 刘潇 ZHAO Hongxing;QIAO Zhongpeng;FENG Tianfeng;GUO Shusen;WANG Shuo;LIU Xiao(National Energy Group Shared Service Center Co.,Ltd.,Dongcheng District,Beijing 100011,China;National Institute of Clean-and-Low-Carbon Energy,Changping District,Beijing 102211,China;Guoneng Guohua(Beijing)Gas Thermal Power Co.,Ltd.,Chaoyang District,Beijing 100018,China)

机构地区：[1]国家能源集团共享服务中心有限公司,北京市东城区100011 [2]北京低碳清洁能源研究院,北京市昌平区102211 [3]国能国华(北京)燃气热电有限公司,北京市朝阳区100018

出　　处：《全球能源互联网》2022年第6期602-608,共7页Journal of Global Energy Interconnection

基　　金：国家能源投资集团有限责任公司科技项目(碳市场和电力市场相互作用推演模型技术开发,ST930022016N)。

摘　　要：生态环境部于2020年印发了发电行业免费碳配额设定与分配实施方案,为控排企业免费碳配额核算提供了标准。目前全国碳市场已启动运行,此前对中国免费碳配额分配的分析均引用了大量假设,且计算精度有限。为此,编制了全国火电厂级精细度的碳清单,自下而上地辨识全国火电厂级煤耗、产能参数,并根据发电行业免费碳配额标准,计算以2020年为基准的碳清单,以此研究目前碳市场规则下免费碳配额在火电行业中的分配平衡性,对于分析现阶段碳市场运行状况、评价碳市场对电力系统的经济影响具有参考价值。分析结果表明,当前中国免费碳配额发放整体盈余,各等级机组免费碳配额平衡的差异一定程度上体现了当前碳市场政策“鼓励清洁机组多发”的导向,但盈余量的分布呈现机组类型、地区间的不平衡特征。针对免费碳配额的不平衡性,给出了中国碳市场优化调整的方向和建议。The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued an implementation plan for the setting and allocation of free carbon allowances in the power generation sector at the end of 2020,providing a standard for accounting for free carbon allowances for emission control enterprises.At present,the national carbon market has been put into operation.Previous analyses of China’s free carbon allowances allocation have cited a large number of assumptions with limited calculation accuracy.A detailed plantlevel carbon inventory of the national thermal power sector is prepared,and the coal consumption and capacity parameters of the national thermal power plants are identified from the bottom up.According to the free carbon allowances standard of the power sector,the carbon inventory based on 2020 is calculated,so as to study the distribution balance of free carbon allowances.The analysis results show that there is an overall surplus on free carbon allowances at present in China.The difference in the balance of free carbon allowances of units of different grades reflects the current carbon market policy of“encouraging lowcarbon emission units to generate more outputs”to a certain extent,but the distribution of surplus is characterized by imbalance among unit types and regions.Facing the imbalance of free carbon allowances,this paper gives the suggestions of carbon market adjustment.

关 键 词：中国碳市场 火电碳清单 免费碳配额 碳配额平衡 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]