华南区域模式在湖南省的2 m温度预报检验与订正研究  

Bias Analysis and Correction Method for the 2 m Temperature Forecast in Hunan of Region Model in South China

作　　者：陈龙 陈静静 兰明才 周长青 付炜 CHEN Long;CHEN Jingjing;LAN Mingcai;ZHOU Changqing;FU Wei(Hunan Meteorological Observatory,Changsha 410118,China;Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction Key Laboratory of Hunan Province,Changsha 410118,China;Yongzhou Meteorological Observatory of Hunan Province,Yongzhou 425000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象台,湖南长沙410118 [2]气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410118 [3]湖南省永州市气象局,湖南永州425000

出　　处：《中低纬山地气象》2022年第5期64-70,共7页Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：泛珠三角区域模式预报发展专项(201906):华南区域模式在湖南的检验订正及强对流产品开发;湖南省重点领域研发计划项目(2019SK2161):强天气精细化监测预警关键技术研究。

摘　　要：基于2019年8月-2020年7月华南区域模式(CMA-GD)预报和湖南97个国家站2 m温度实况,开展模式温度预报检验和逐步回归订正技术研究。结果表明:华南区域模式2 m温度预报与实况变化趋势基本一致,预报偏差具有明显日变化,白天准确率下降、夜间升高,随着预报时效的延长,偏差增大;夏半年预报偏差大于冬半年;湘西预报效果优于湘东;00时起报的2 m温度预报优于12时起报。基于华南区域模式预报产品,区分起报时次和季节的2 m温度预报逐步回归订正预报效果较好,订正后预报相对于模式预报误差下降、准确率提高,有明显正技巧,对12时起报的模式预报效果改善更大,不同站点订正效果略有差异,对预报误差较大站点,订正效果明显。Using the forecast data of regional model in South China(CMA-GD)and the 2 m temperature observation data of 97 national stations in Hunan from August 2019 to July 2020,the hourly 2 m temperature forecast of CMA-GD was evaluated and corrected in Hunan by using the stepwise regression method.The results show that the forecast bias of the 2 m temperature of CMA-GD has obvious diurnal variation,because the forecast accuracy decreases in the day and increases in the night.The deviation increases with the extension of the forecast time.The forecast deviation is larger in summer.The forecast in the western Hunan is better than that in the eastern Hunan.It's better the 2 m temperature forecast from 00∶00 than that of from 12∶00(UTC).On the basis of the 2 m temperature forecast of CMA-GD,a stepwise regression correction model is established by time,regardless of time period,and season.The correction forecast has obvious positive skills compared with the model forecast,because of being reduced of the error and significantly improved of the accuracy.

关 键 词：华南区域模式 2 m温度 逐步回归 温度订正 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]