V−3θ图在贵州冰雹天气中的特征检验及适用性分析  

Characteristics inspection and applicability analysis of V-3θdiagram in hail weather of Guizhou

作　　者：顾天红 张艳梅 李力 朱育雷 李典南 GU Tian-hong;ZHANG Yan-mei;LI Li;ZHU Yu-lei;LI Dian-nan(Guizhou Meteorological Observatory,Guiyang 550002,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象台,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第6期1194-1205,共12页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：贵州省气象局气象科技开放研究基金(黔气科合KF[2016]15号);贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登[2020]12-03号,黔气科登[2021]07-07号).

摘　　要：选取2018—2021年贵州60次冰雹过程,根据贵州冰雹西北气流型、高空槽型、锋前降雹型和高架雷暴型等4种概念化模型,基于溃变理论,利用MICAPS4系统自带的V−3θ图对60次冰雹过程进行了特征检验及适用性分析.结果表明,不同环流类型的冰雹过程发生前后V−3θ图的特征不同,其中高架雷暴型的V−3θ图特征最典型,最不明显的是西北气流型.4种类型的贵州冰雹过程集中表现为超低温、θ曲线多折拐、整层顺滚流、θ_(sed)和θ*围成“蜂腰”形态.当V−3θ图上同时出现这4种形态特征时,对判断本站附近及下游地区出现冰雹有一定的预报指示意义,但同时空报率较高,且由于V−3θ图同T-LnP图一样在时间和空间分辨率上均较低,故不适合单一使用V−3θ图作冰雹预报.当存在利于降雹的大尺度环流和中小尺度系统时,结合V−3θ图作为辅助分析,能在一定程度上起到增加预报确定性的作用.Sixty hail processes were selected in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2021.According to 4 conceptual models of hail in Guizhou Province—the types of northwest airflow,upper trough,front hail and overhead thunderstorm—the characteristics of the 60 hail processes were tested and their applicability was analyzed based on the collapse theory and the V-3θdiagram of MICAPS4.The results showed that:The characteristics of V-3θdiagram were different before and after the hail processes of different circulation types.The V-3θdiagram of the overhead thunderstorm type was the most typical,while the northwest airflow type was the least obvious.The four types of hail processes in Guizhou were mainly manifested as ultra-low temperatures,multipleθcurve bendings,the whole layer rolling along,and the shape of θ_(sed )andθ*surrounding"bee waist".When these four features appear simultaneously on V-3θdiagram,it was of certain significance to predict the occurrence of hail near the station and the downstream area.But at the same time,the false alarm ratio(FAR)was also high and it was unsuitable to use only V-3θdiagram for hail prediction,for V-3θdiagram had low temporal and spatial resolution like T-LnP diagram.To a certain extent,when there were large scale circulations and meso-small scale systems conducive to hail falling,V-3θdiagram could be used as an auxiliary analysis to increase the certainty of forecast.

关 键 词：冰雹 V−3θ图 概念化模型 箱线图 阈值 贵州省 

分 类 号：P456.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]