厄尔尼诺事件对西北太平洋柔鱼种群动态的影响  

Impacts of the El Nino event on the population dynamics of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

作　　者：隋芯 汪金涛[1,3,4,5,6] 陈新军[1,3,4,5,6] 雷林[1,3,4,5,6] SUI Xin;WANG Jintao;CHEN Xinjun;LEI Lin(College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;East China Sea Fishery Research Institute,CAFS,Shanghai 200090,China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration,Ministry of Agriculture,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海201306 [2]中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所,上海海洋大学,上海200090 [3]农业农村部大洋渔业开发重点实验室,上海海洋大学,上海201306 [4]国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海海洋大学,上海201306 [5]大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室,上海海洋大学,上海201306 [6]农业农村部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站,上海海洋大学,上海201306

出　　处：《水产学报》2022年第8期1345-1356,共12页Journal of Fisheries of China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFD0901404);国家自然科学基金(41876141);自然资源卫星遥感技术体系建设与应用示范项目(202001004)。

摘　　要：为了解西北太平洋柔鱼资源量变动与气候变化如厄尔尼诺事件等的关系,实验假设尼诺指数(oceanic Nino index,ONI)影响柔鱼种群动态参数内禀自然增长率(intrinsic rate of growth,r)和最大环境容纳量(carrying capacity,K)并分别建立4种剩余产量模型(SP、E_(r)-EDSP、E_(K)-EDSP、E_(r)-E_(K)-EDSP)探索厄尔尼诺事件影响下西北太平洋柔鱼的种群资源状态变化趋势。结果发现,E_(r)-EDSP、E_(K)-EDSP、E_(r)-E_(K)-EDSP等3个加入气候因子模型的偏差信息准则(deviance information criterion,DIC)值小于传统剩余产量模型的DIC值,其中E_(r)E_(K)-EDSP模型DIC值最小,模型精度最高,估计的最大可持续产量(maximum sustainable yield,MSY)为39.26×10^(4) t。1994—2017年,北太平洋柔鱼的捕捞死亡率(F_(t))低于目标死亡率(F_(tar))和MSY水平下的捕捞死亡率(F_(MSY)),2017年种群资源量小于MSY水平资源量(B_(MSY))。研究表明,西北太平洋柔鱼种群资源可能正处于过度捕捞阶段。该研究结果可为西北太平洋柔鱼的可持续开发提供建议。Ommastrephes bartramii is one of the important and significant economic species in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and the variation in biomass is susceptible to the climate change,such as El Ni?o.In this study,we assumed that the oceanic Nino index(ONI)affected the parameters,including intrinsic rate of growth(r),carrying capacity(K),respectively and simultaneously,of population dynamics model for O.bartramii.Thus,four surplus production models,Schaefer’s model of surplus production(SP)and three environmentally dependent surplus production(EDSP)models(E_(r)-EDSP,E_(K)-EDSP and E_(r)-E_(K)-EDSP)were developed to evaluate the trend of the stock dynamics of O.bartramii in the Northwest Pacific.The results showed that the Deviance Information Criterion(DIC)values of three EDSP models were less than the DIC value of SP model.Moreover,the E_(r)-E_(K)-EDSP with the smallest DIC value served as the optimal model.The estimated Maximum Sustainable Yield(MSY)value was 39.26×10^(4) tons.From 1994 to 2017,the fishing mortality rate(F_(t))of O.bartramii was far lower than the target mortality rate(F_(tar))and the fishing mortality rate at the level of MSY(F_(MSY)).In 2017,the stock resources of O.bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean were less than the corresponding resources at the level of MSY(B_(MSY)).Currently,the O.bartramii stock in the Northwest Pacific is being overfished or was being overfished.The conclusion could be used for sustainable development and management of O.bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

关 键 词：柔鱼 厄尔尼诺 种群动态 剩余产量模型 西北太平洋 

分 类 号：S931[农业科学—渔业资源]