前体物排放变化对珠江三角洲地区秋季臭氧污染演变的影响研究  

Effects of changes in precursor emissions on the evolution of ozone pollution in the Pearl River Delta region in autumn

作　　者：李圳 黄志炯 王肖丽 史博文 陆梦华 沙青娥 郑传增 陈多宏 陈籽希 郭嘉文 郑君瑜 LI Zhen;HUANG Zhijiong;WANG Xiaoli;SHI Bowen;LU Menghua;SHA Qing’e;ZHENG Chuanzeng;CHEN Duohong;CHEN Zixi;GUO Jiawen;ZHENG Junyu(Institute of Environment and Climate,Jinan University,Guangzhou 511486;School of Environment and Energy,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006;Guangdong Ecological Environment Monitoring Center,Guangzhou 510308;Zhongke Hongqing(Beijing)Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100000)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学环境与气候研究院,广州511486 [2]华南理工大学环境与能源学院,广州510006 [3]广东省生态环境监测中心,广州510308 [4]中科弘清(北京)科技有限公司,北京100000

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2022年第10期36-48,共13页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(No.2018YFC0213902);国家自然科学基金委研究项目(No.41805068)。

摘　　要：自2013年以来,珠三角地区SO_(2)、NO_(x)及颗粒物等污染物浓度逐渐下降,但臭氧污染日渐凸显.作为二次污染物,臭氧污染演变受到排放与气象条件共同影响.而评估本地前体物人为排放变化、外部传输和气象变化对臭氧污染演变的影响,并识别臭氧污染长期演变趋势的重要驱动因素,是开展区域臭氧污染防控的关键基础.因此,本文采用WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ模拟平台,以2006-2017年广东省和中国大气污染物排放趋势清单为输入清单,以2014年的气象数据为基准年气象场,通过设置不同案例,结合观测数据,定量评估本地、外部排放变化和气象变化对珠三角秋季O污染长期演变趋势的影响.结果表明:在2006-2017年期间,整个珠三角9-10月臭氧日最大8 h(MDA8)浓度上升主要由人为排放变化主导,平均每年贡献0.7μg·m^(-3),而气象条件总体上抑制了2006-2017年期间珠三角秋季臭氧MDA8浓度的增长,使得秋季臭氧MDA8浓度上升速率下降为0.2μg·m·a^(-1);人为排放变化对珠三角秋季臭氧的影响主要集中在珠三角中心地区的佛山和广州南部、珠三角下风向区域的珠海和江门北部及肇庆东部,整体主要由本地人为排放主导,但在2006-2012年主要受外部人为排放变化影响,平均每年贡献0.9μg·m^(-3),而在2013年后主要受本地人为排放变化影响,平均每年贡献0.6μg·m^(-3);其中,本地人为排放影响主要集中在珠三角中心地区,外部人为排放影响主要集中在珠三角上风向和下风向区域.Atmospheric pollutant concentrations such as SO,NOand particulate matter have gradually decreased in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)since 2013,but ozone pollution has become prominent.As a secondary pollutant,the evolution of ozone pollution is affected by both emissions and meteorological conditions.Assessing the impact of changes in local emissions,external emissions,and meteorological condition on the evolution of ozone pollution are the key foundations for regional ozone pollution control.Therefore,this paper used WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ simulations to quantitatively assess the local and external emission changes on Opollution evolution in the PRD region between 2006-2017.Historical emission trend in Guangdong Province and China were input to the model to simulate the emission change.The results show that:during the period from 2006 to2017,the increase in ozone MDA8 concentration in PRD from September to October was primarily dominated by changes in anthropogenic emissions,with an average annual contribution of 0.7μg·m·a^(-1).The meteorological condition during 2006-2017 generally inhibited the increase of ozone MDA8concentration in PRD in autumn,so that the increase rate of autumn ozone MDA8 concentration in PRD decreased to 0.2μg·m·a^(-1).The impact of emission changes on ozone is primarily concentrated in the central PRD,such as Foshan and southern Guangzhou,and the downwind areas of PRD,such as Zhuhai and northern Jiangmen.The impact is dominated by local anthropogenic emissions but are primarily affected by changes in external anthropogenic emissions from 2006 to 2012,with the average annual contribution of 0.9μg·m^(-3).After 2013,the impact is primarily from the changes in local anthropogenic emissions,with an average annual contribution of 0.6μg·m^(-3).Regarding the spatial pattern,the impact of local anthropogenic emissions is primarily concentrated in urban areas,while the impact of external anthropogenic emissions is primarily concentrated in upwind and downwind areas.

关 键 词：臭氧 MDA8 长期演变趋势 前体物 人为排放 珠三角地区 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]