城镇化对中国农村居民消费的影响及传导路径研究——基于收入效应和收入差距的多重中介效应检验  

A Study on the Impact of Urbanization on China’s Rural Residents’Consumption and Its Transmission Path:A Multiple Mediation Effect Test Based on Income Effect and Income Disparity

作　　者：王芳 胡立君[2] Wang Fang;Hu Lijun

机构地区：[1]中共江苏省委党校经济管理教研部 [2]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2022年第9期64-77,共14页Macroeconomics

基　　金：江苏省社科基金青年项目“乡村振兴背景下江苏发展普惠金融巩固脱贫攻坚成效研究”(编号:22EYC003);江苏省委党校预研课题“江苏构建生产性服务业与制造业互动发展的长效机制研究”(编号:YY2001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：城镇化既直接影响农村居民消费,也以收入效应和收入差距为中介间接影响农村居民消费。本文分析收入效应和收入差距在城镇化影响农村居民消费中的中介作用,并基于中国2001—2019年省级面板数据,构建中介效应模型,从全国和区域层面考察中介效应在不同地区的影响效果大小和主要的传导路径。研究结果表明:(1)中国城镇化发展对农村居民消费水平和消费结构都具有显著促进作用,这样的促进作用存在地区差异性,在中部地区的影响效果最明显,西部次之,东部最小;(2)在全国和区域层面,收入效应和收入差距在城镇化影响农村居民消费之间的中介效应成立,但在东中西部,中介效应的大小和传导路径不同;(3)对于农村居民而言,城镇化带来的收入增加会引起消费水平提高,但并不一定能引起消费结构升级,城镇化引致的消费结构升级主要由缩小城乡收入差距传导。据此提出差异化区域政策:东部地区捕捉新基建契机,促进数字智慧城镇化扩散;中西部地区坚持新型城镇化与乡村振兴并举,促进城乡融合发展。Urbanization affects rural residents’consumption both directly and indirectly by mediating the income effect and income disparity.This paper analyzes the mediating role of income effect and income gap in urbanization affecting rural residents’consumption,and constructs a mediating effect model based on provincial panel data from 2001-2019 in China to examine the magnitude of the mediating effect and the main transmission paths of the mediating effect in different regions at the national and regional levels.The findings show that:(1)Urbanization development in China has a significant promotion effect on both consumption level and consumption structure of rural residents,and such promotion effect has regional variability,with the most significant effect in the central region,followed by the western region and the smallest in the eastern region;(2)At the national and regional levels,the mediating effect of income effect and income gap between urbanization and rural residents’consumption is established,but the magnitude and transmission path of the mediating effect are different in the eastern,central and western regions;(3)For rural residents,the increase in income brought by urbanization will lead to an increase in consumption level,but not necessarily to an upgrade in consumption structure,which is mainly transmitted by narrowing the urban-rural income gap.Accordingly,differentiated regional policies are proposed:the eastern region captures new infrastructure opportunities and promotes the proliferation of digital smart urbanization;the central and western regions insist on new urbanization and rural revitalization to promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas.

关 键 词：城镇化 农村居民消费水平 农村居民消费结构 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] F299.21