黄河流域城乡转型的时空格局及影响因素研究  

Study on the Spatial-temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Urban-rural Transformation in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：陈文风 刘丹 李琳娜 CHEN Wen-feng;LIU Dan;LI Lin-na(Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2022年第12期1442-1450,共9页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:42071227、41931293)。

摘　　要：探索黄河流域人口—土地—产业转型的时空格局及影响因素,可以为区域城乡发展提供分区引导。以县域为单元,针对黄河流域城乡转型发展,构建人口、土地、产业三要素的指标体系,利用耦合协调模型、空间自相关模型、轨迹分析法及面板数据模型,分析了2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年黄河流域339个县域的城乡转型的时空演变规律及其耦合协调格局,并探索城乡转型的影响因素,根据城乡转型发展的轨迹进行功能分区,提出针对性的政策建议。结果表明:①黄河流域整体人口、土地、产业城乡转型水平初期偏低,但随着区域社会经济发展,城乡系统逐渐向高级有序化方向演化;②2020年,大部分县域处于高水平耦合和高度协调阶段,空间关联类型以显著“高—高”和显著“低—低”类型区为主;③人均GDP、社会消费品零售总额、农业生产水平等因素是人口—土地—产业转型发展的主要驱动因素;④按照城乡转型轨迹,黄河流域县域可划分为核心转型区、潜在转型区和限制转型区。未来,应统筹新型城镇化与乡村振兴,根据不同类型区域特征,分别制定城乡融合发展策略,进而促进整个区域的高质量发展。Exploring the spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of population land industry transition in the Yellow River Basin could provide zoning guidance for regional urban and rural development.Taking the county as the unit,and aiming at the transformation and development of urban and rural areas in the Yellow River Basin,this paper constructed an indicator system of population,land and industry.Furthermore,using coupling coordination model,spatial autocorrelation model,trajectory analysis method and panel data model,this paper analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution and coupling coordination pattern of urban and rural transformation in 339 counties of the Yellow River Basin in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020,and explored the influencing factors of urban and rural transformation.According to the track of urban and rural transformation and development,this paper carried out functional zoning,and put forward targeted policy recommendations.The results showed that:①The overall level of urban-rural transformation of population,land and industry in the Yellow River Basin was initially low,but with regional socio-economic development,the urban-rural system gradually evolved towards advanced orderliness.②Most counties were at a high degree of coupling and coordination in 2020,and the spatial connection types were primarily significant“high-high”and significant“low-low”.③Factors such as per capita GDP,total retail sales of social consumer goods,and agricultural production levels were the main drivers of population-land-industry transformation.④The Yellow River Basin′s counties were split into core transformation areas,potential transformation areas,and restricted transformation areas.In the future,new urbanization and rural revitalization should be integrated,and urban-rural integration development strategies should be formulated separately according to the characteristics of different types of regions,thus promoting the high-quality development of the whole region.

关 键 词：城乡转型 时空格局 影响因素 面板数据 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TU982[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]