城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故风险演化机制研究  

Research of Risk Evolution Mechanism for Leakage and Explosion Accident of Urban Gas Pipeline

作　　者：孙逸林 郑小强[1] 郭向国[2] 刘险峰[1] 周密 SUN Yilin;ZHENG Xiaoqiang;GUO Xiangguo;LIU Xianfeng;ZHOU Mi(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500 [2]东营职业学院基建处,山东东营257091 [3]中石油川庆钻探工程有限公司川东钻探有限公司,重庆400021

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2022年第5期718-727,共10页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：西南石油大学杰出人才项目(2018RW005);西南石油大学天然气行业系统决策与运营管理创新团队科研项目(2019CXTD12).

摘　　要：为深入探讨城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故的风险演化机制,维护城市公共安全,以湖北十堰“6·13”事故为例,集成AcciMap事故致因模型与系统动力学方法构建分析框架。首先,基于AcciMap模型递阶层次结构,系统辨识和遴选事故致因,厘清逻辑关系,还原事故过程;其次,将SD思想引入AcciMap模型,构建AcciMap-SD集成模型;再次,通过博弈论组合赋权获取函数关系,实现风险演化机制的动态定量可视化,提出3种风险干预策略。结果表明:事故系统风险呈现“上升-达峰-下降”的趋势,可分为风险集聚、风险蓄积、风险爆发和风险下降4个阶段;减少政府安全生产理念和属地责任贯彻落实的风险对降低事故系统风险的干预效果最好,提高政府应急响应和学习能力的干预效果次之,减少企业安全生产主体责任落实风险的干预效果最差;政府部门安全监管失察和企业安全生产主体责任未落实分别是事故的客观根源与主观核心;AcciMap-SD集成方法能够有效刻画事故的风险演化机制,是AcciMap模型在定量分析领域的有益补充。In order to analyze the risk evolution mechanism for leakage and explosion accident of urban gas pipelines,so as to maintain urban public safety,taking the 6·13 accident in Shiyan,Hubei Province as an example,a new analysis framework combined the AcciMap model and System Dynamics(SD)approach was proposed.Firstly,causal factors and their mutual relationship were identified based on the AcciMap model′s hierarchical structure.Secondly,the SD approach was combined with the AcciMap model,then the AcciMap-SD model could be built.Thirdly,the game theory was applied to calculate the final weight values of causal factors,then we get the functional relationships and realized dynamic quantitative visualization of the risk evolution mechanism.Based on this,three risk intervention strategies were proposed.The analysis results prove that:The risk trend shows"rise-peak-decrease",and it could be clarified as four stages named risk concentration,risk accumulation,risk outbreak,and risk reduction;reducing the risk of implementation government′s safety concept and territorial responsibility has the best effect on reducing risk;improving the government′s emergency response and learning ability;reducing the risk of the implementation of the main responsibility of enterprises′safety production;The neglection of safety supervision by government departments and failure to implement the main responsibility of enterprise safety production is the objective root causes and subjective cores of the accident respectively;The AcciMap-SD model can effectively describe the risk evolution mechanism,it is also a useful supplement to the AcciMap model in the field of its quantitative analysis.

关 键 词：燃气管道 风险演化 AcciMap模型 系统动力学 组合赋权 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]