资本管制对货币政策独立性的动态影响研究--兼论“中间政策”组合的效果  

Dynamic Influence of Capital Control on Monetary Policy Independence:Discussion on the Effect of the Intermediate Policy Mix

作　　者：张礼卿[1,2] 孟祥源 李杰[2] 周天杭 Zhang Liqing;Meng Xiangyuan;Li Jie;Zhou Tianhang(School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;Chinese Academy of Finance and Development,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,100081 [2]中央财经大学中国金融发展研究院,100081

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2022年第9期21-41,共21页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国资本账户开放进程安排和风险防范研究”(14JZD016)的资助;国家社科基金重点项目“稳慎推进人民币国际化的策略与路径”(21AZD066)的资助。

摘　　要：本文使用面板固定效应模型,研究了资本管制对货币政策独立性在短期和长期内的影响。主要结论包括:第一,资本管制对货币政策独立性的影响在短期内效果显著,但在长期内效果并不显著。第二,结合不同汇率制度的异质性分析表明,资本管制搭配较为浮动的汇率制度时,效果更好。本文的政策性含义是,为了更好地适应“双循环”新发展格局,我国应继续稳步增强人民币汇率制度弹性,完善跨境资本流动的宏观审慎政策框架,但在必要时也可实行临时性资本管制。This paper uses a fixed-effect panel model to study the short-term and long-term effects of capital controls on monetary policy independence.The main conclusions include:Firstly,in terms of providing monetary policy independence,the effect of capital controls is significant in the short run,but not significant in the long run.Secondly,heterogeneity analysis based on different groups of exchange rate regimes shows that capital control combined with a more flexible exchange rate regime is more effective.The policy implication of this paper is that,in order to better form the new development pattern of"Dual Circulation",China should steadily strengthen the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate system and accelerate the improvement of the macro-prudential framework of crossborder capital flows,while temporary capital controls can be implemented when necessary.

关 键 词：三元悖论 资本管制 货币政策独立性 半参数模型 中间政策组合 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学] F821.0