我国建筑业就业弹性预测分析  

Predictive Forecasting of Employment Elasticity in Chinese Construction Industry

作　　者：朱菊 Zhu Ju

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学,内蒙古包头014017

出　　处：《重庆建筑》2022年第11期39-42,共4页Chongqing Architecture

摘　　要：建筑业是我国经济发展的支柱产业,建筑业在解决农民工就业中起着不可或缺的作用。研究通过2010—2019年建筑业产值和劳动力需求数据,利用灰色预测模型预测了未来十年我国建筑业的产值,利用线性函数预测了建筑业劳动力的需求,最后通过就业弹性系数分析了我国建筑业产值与就业人口的关系。结果表明,未来十年间建筑业就业弹性系数在五年移动平均中逐渐趋近于0,我国建筑业产值对就业的吸引力逐渐下降。The construction industry is the pillar for our economy development, and it plays an indispensable role in helping the employment of migrant workers. Based on the data of construction output value and labor demand from 2010 to2019, the paper used the grey prediction model to forecast the output value of the construction industry in the next decade.This paper predicted the demand of construction industry labor by linear function, and finally analyzed the relationship between construction output value and employment population by employment elasticity coefficient. The results showed that the employment elasticity coefficient of the construction industry gradually approaches 0 in the five-year moving average in the next decade, and the attraction of construction output value to employment decreases gradually.

关 键 词：灰色理论模型 建筑业产值预测 劳动力需求预测 就业弹性系数 

分 类 号：TU20[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论] F249.21[经济管理—劳动经济]