转基因主粮作物商业化影响中国经济安全吗——基于对中美印比较分析的启示  

Does Commercialization of GM Staple Food Crops Affect China's Economic Security——The Revelation Based on Comparative Analysis of China,the U.S.and India

作　　者：李万君[1] 包玉泽[1] 李艳军[1] Li Wanjun;Bao Yuze;Li Yanjun(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2022年第11期163-173,共11页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“政府支持与研发投入对种子企业技术创新绩效的交互影响机理及实证”(71703050);国家自然科学基金面上项目“新《种子法》知识产权保护对种子企业技术创新行为的影响机理研究:外部性视角”(72173053)。

摘　　要：基于转基因主粮作物商业化对中国经济安全影响的相关文献,运用文本分析法提炼出推行转基因主粮作物商业化可能使中国经济安全遭受影响的基础变量,分别为技术专利、企业实力、产业依赖、辅助行业、国际贸易、定价权力、市场需求、制度保障和调控能力。将这些变量与比较优势指数和波特钻石模型中有关竞争优势来源的因素进行对应分析,并将其划分为“激励性”因素和“保障性”因素。接着对中国、美国和印度就这些基础变量进行比较分析。研究发现,中国在诸多基础变量上与上述两国相比处于劣势,尤其体现在“激励性”因素上。因此,当前中国并不具备推行转基因主粮作物商业化的激励性,且贸然推行可能给经济安全带来某些不确定性。主要方针应为:未雨绸缪、走自主研发的道路;这些基础变量呈现的比较优势和竞争优势在不同作物间也存在差异。因此,应分类指导,差异化发展。Based on the literature on the impact of commercialization of GM staple food crops on China's economic security,we used text analysis to extract the basic variables which may affect China's economic security due to implementing the commercialization of GM staple food crops,i.e.technology patent,enterprise strength,industrial dependence,auxiliary industries,international trade,pricing power,market demand,system guarantees and regulatory capabilities.We compared these variables with comparative advantage indexes and the factors of the source of competitive advantage in Poter s Diamonds Framework.We divided these variables into“incentive”factors and“guaranteed”factors.Then we make a comparative analysis in terms of these basic variables between China,the U.S.and India.We found that China is at a disadvantage compared with above two countries in many basic variables,especially in the“incentive”factors.Therefore,China has no incentive to promote the commercialization of GM staple food crops presently,and hastily implementing may bring some uncertainty to economic security.The main policy should be planning ahead and taking the path of independent R&D,and the comparative advantages and competitive advantages presented by the basic variables also vary from different crops.Therefore,we should use classification guidance to implement differentiated development.

关 键 词：转基因主粮作物 商业化 经济安全 比较优势 竞争优势 

分 类 号：F310[经济管理—产业经济] S-1[农业科学]