放开生育政策促进了农村劳动力外出务工吗?  

Did the Liberalization of the Fertility Policy Promote Rural Labour Migration?

作　　者：王安邦 何可[1,2] 张俊飚 WANG Anbang;HE Ke;ZHANG Junbiao

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院 [2]湖北农村发展研究中心 [3]华中农业大学湖北生态文明建设研究院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2022年第9期82-99,共18页Chinese Rural Economy

摘　　要：本文基于中国家庭追踪调查2012-2018年的农村家庭数据,应用PSM-DID模型分析了“二孩政策”对农村劳动力外出务工的影响。与前人研究结论不同的是,本文研究发现:放开生育政策带来了显著的收入效应,促进了农村劳动力外出务工。其中,“单独二孩”政策的影响整体上不显著,但在欠发达地区表现出了对农村劳动力外出务工的显著促进作用;“全面二孩”政策使目标家庭农村劳动力外出务工的可能性平均提高了16.3%,且并未表现出明显的地区差异。政府部门应在优化生育政策的同时,充分考量由生育政策不断放开所引致的劳动力流动加剧,做好应对农村劳动力加速向城市转移的准备。Based on the rural household data of the CFPS from 2012 to 2018,this article uses a PSM-DID model to analyze the impact of the“Two-child Policy”on rural labour migration.The study finds that the liberalization of the fertility policy has brought significant income effects and accelerated rural labour migration.Among them,the impact of the“Limited Two-child Policy”is not significant on the whole,but it shows a promoting effect on rural labour migration in less developed areas.The“Universal Two-child Policy”has increased the probability of rural labour force from target families to go out to work by 16.3%on average,and there is no obvious regional difference.Therefore,while optimizing the fertility policy,the government should give full consideration to the intensification of labour mobility caused by the continuous liberalization of the fertility policy and prepare for the accelerated migration of rural workers to cities.

关 键 词：放开生育政策 “二孩政策” 农村劳动力 外出务工 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学] F323.6