育龄人口不同阶段生育意愿影响因素研究——基于CGSS2018数据的实证研究  

Study on Influencing Factors of Fertility Intention in Different Stages of Childbearing Age Population:Empirical Research Based on CGSS2018 Data

作　　者：范璐琪 刘素姣[1] Fan Luqi;Liu Sujiao(School of Philosophy and Public Administration,Henan University,Kaifeng,Henan Province,475000)

机构地区：[1]河南大学哲学与公共管理学院,河南开封475000

出　　处：《山东工会论坛》2022年第6期49-61,共13页Shandong Trade Unions＇ Tribune

基　　金：河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目“基于获得感的河南省农村社区养老服务体系优化研究”(项目编号:2021-ZZJH-054)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：基于CGSS2018数据,使用多分类logistic回归模型,对比分析了育龄群体在不同生育阶段的生育意愿影响因素。研究发现:传统养老观念并不能显著影响育龄人口的生育意愿。从无生育意愿阶段向意愿生育一个孩子阶段的转变过程中,个人因素的影响较大,男性、高中及以下学历、有配偶、住房面积越大的个体生育意愿越强;从意愿生育一个孩子向意愿生育两个及以上孩子的转变过程中,经济因素的影响凸显,20—37岁、已婚、没有子女、有两套及以上房产、在机关事业单位和企业工作、东部和中部地区的育龄群体生育二孩、三孩的可能性更大。文章建议,鼓励生育首先要保障育龄群体的个人权益,尤其是女性权益。其次,政府需要构建家庭友好的生育政策支持体系,解决育龄群体的生育顾虑。同时,针对二孩、三孩,国家应加大生育补贴力度,缓解育龄群体的“经济之忧”。Based on CGSS2018 data,a multi-classification logistic regression model was constructed to analyze the influencing factors of fertility willingness at different stages of childbearing age groups.The study found that the traditional concept of providing for the aged could not significantly affect the reproductive intention of the population of childbearing age.In the process of changing from having no intention to have a child to having one child,personal factors have a greater impact.For males,who have a high school degree or below,having spouses,the greater the area of housing,the stronger the individual s intention to have a child;in the process of changing from willing to have one child to willing to have two or more children,the influence of economic factors is prominent.The middle-aged group(20-37 years old),married with a spouse,without children,with two or more houses,working in institutions or enterprises,and the childbearing age group being in the eastern and central regions are more likely to have two or three children.Therefore,to encourage childbearing,it is first necessary to protect the personal rights and interests of the childbearing age groups,especially the rights and interests of women.Secondly,the government needs to build a family-friendly policy support system to address the childbearing concerns of the childbearing age groups.At the same time,for the second and third children,the government should increase the level of maternity subsidies to ease the“economic worries”of the childbearing age groups.

关 键 词：生育意愿 影响因素 多分类回归 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]