化石能源市场对碳排放权市场的影响存在区域性差异吗?  

Are There Regional Differences in the Impact of the Fossil Energy Market on the Carbon Emission Rights Market?

作　　者：陈珂[1] 华靖芬 李芸琪 CHEN Ke;HUA Jing-fen;LI Yun-qi(Finance and Statistics College,Hunan University,Changsha 410006,China;The People'sBank of China FuzhouCentral Sub-Branch,Fuzhou 344000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410006 [2]中国人民银行抚州市中心支行,江西抚州344000

出　　处：《系统工程》2022年第5期18-32,共15页Systems Engineering

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2020JJ4223)。

摘　　要：十三五规划收官同年,美国退出《巴黎协定》。中国想要打好污染防治的攻坚战,承担全球气候变化中的大国责任,亟需在经济的可持续发展与二氧化碳排放的稳步控制之间取得平衡。有基于此,本文以“化石能源价格-碳排放权价格”的传导机制为基础,将通过构建向量自回归模型(VAR)研究化石能源价格对中国碳排放权市场交易价格的影响否存在区域性差异。研究表明影响存在区域性差异,并分析原因如下:(1)各个市场之间存在“双封闭性”。(2)各个市场之间的宏观经济、覆盖行业、分配机制、监管力度等方面存在区域性差异。(3)各个市场内的“化石能源价格-碳排放权价格”联动机制均未完全形成。(4)化石能源市场存在政府管制、寡头参与者以及垄断参与者,价格不能体现市场的供求情况。(5)化石能源单质品种多、内部消化各化石能源之间的替代效应。(6)市场存在着信息不对称与消费者的谨慎消费习惯。In the same year that the 13 th Five-Year Plan ended, the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement. If China wants to fight pollution prevention and control and assume the responsibility of a major country in global climate change, it urgently needs to strike a balance between sustainable economic development and steady control of carbon dioxide. On the basis of the mechanism that “fossil energy prices-carbon emissions rights price”, this paper constructs a vector autoregressive model(VAR) to analyze whether there exit regional differences in the impacts of Fossil energy prices on the trading prices of China carbon emission rights markets. The research affirm the regional differences and analyze the reasons as follows:(1) There is a “Double-Closure” between the various markets.(2) There are regional differences in the macroeconomics, covered industries, distribution mechanisms, and supervision efforts among various markets.(3) The linkage mechanism of “fossil energy price-carbon emission rights price” in each market has not fully formed.(4) In the fossil energy market, there are governmental regulation and oligopoly participants even monopolistic participants, so prices cannot reflect market supply and demand.(5) There are many types of one fossil energy, and the substitution effect between various fossil energy is digested internally.(6) Information asymmetry and consumers’ cautious consumption habits exist in the market.

关 键 词：能源经济 区域性差异 VAR模型 溢出效应 碳排放权 化石能源 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]