不同选样方法下短历时暴雨频率分布线型优选  

Optimal Selection of Short⁃Duration Rainstorm Frequency Distribution Curves Under Different Sampling Methods

作　　者：王鹏飞 王双银[1] 王晶 胡睿 WANG Pengfei;WANG Shuangyin;WANG Jing;HU Rui(Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《人民黄河》2022年第11期35-39,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：陕西省水利科技项目(2017slkj-1);西北农林科技大学科技发展基金项目(A2990215215)。

摘　　要：为研究不同选样方法下短历时暴雨频率分布线型的适应性,以陕西省渭河流域39个气象站的11个短历时暴雨序列为研究对象,采用线性矩法估计参数,利用拟优平方和准则法评价拟合优度,分别从同一气象站不同历时暴雨序列最优分布和同一历时不同气象站暴雨序列最优分布两方面,对年最大值法、年多个样法和年超大值法3种选样方法下的13种频率分布线型的适应性进行了分析比较。结果表明:广义帕累托分布(GEP)对3种选样方法均具有较好的适应性,可作为陕西省渭河流域短历时暴雨的理论频率分布。In order to study the adaptability of short duration rainstorm frequency distribution curve under different sample selection methods,in this paper,11 short⁃duration rainstorm sequences of 39 meteorological stations in the Weihe River basin of Shaanxi Province were taken as the research object,parameters were estimated by L⁃moment method.Root mean square error test was used as the goodness of fit evaluation method.From the two aspects of optimal distribution of rainstorm sequences with different durations at the same station and optimal distribu⁃tion of rainstorm sequences with different stations at the same duration,the adaptability of 13 frequency distribution curves under 3 sampling methods of annual maximum method,annual multiple sample method and annual super large value method were analyzed and compared.The results show that the Generalized Pareto distribution(GEP)has good adaptability to the 3 sampling methods,which can be used as the theo⁃retical frequency analysis of short⁃duration rainstorm in this research area.

关 键 词：选样方法 短历时暴雨 频率分布 拟优平方和准则法 陕西省渭河流域 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学] TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]