政府基建支出如何兼顾稳增长与调结构——基于生产网络的视角  

How Does Government Spending on Infrastructure Balance Stabilizing Growth and Adjusting Structure——From the Perspective of Production Network

作　　者：王志刚 黎恩银 WANG Zhigang;LI Enyin(Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院,100142

出　　处：《经济学动态》2022年第8期25-44,共20页Economic Perspectives

摘　　要：政府基建支出对于稳增长和调结构具有重要作用,本文尝试运用生产网络方法,比较分析了传统基建支出和新基建支出的乘数效应和产业结构升级效应,研究发现,在基建支出总量不增加的情况下仅靠存量调整并不能拉动经济增长;当政府基建支出总量增加时,由于传统基建在生产网络中比新基建具有更高的中心度,而且与“两高”产业的关联度更高,与战略性新兴产业的关联度更低,所以传统基建支出的乘数效应强于新基建,但产业结构升级效应显著低于新基建。因此,新增基建支出在两类基建之间进行分配时,存在稳增长和调结构的权衡,基于2020年全国生产网络测算结果表明,增加1单位基建支出,将其中55%以上用于新基建时,可以兼顾稳增长和调结构双重目标。此外,由于各省级行政区生产网络存在较大差异性,各省级行政区两类基建支出的乘数效应和产业结构升级效应异质性明显。Government expenditure on infrastructure plays an important role in stabilizing growth and adjusting structure. We try to compare and analyze the multiplier effect and industrial structure upgrading effect of the traditional and new infrastructure expenditure from the perspective of production network. Our research finds that stock adjustment alone cannot drive economic growth without increasing the total amount of infrastructure expenditure. When the total amount of government infrastructure expenditure increases, the multiplier effect of the traditional infrastructure expenditure is stronger than that of the new infrastructure, however, the upgrading effect of industrial structure is significantly lower than that of the new infrastructure. This is because the traditional infrastructure has a higher centrality in the production network than the new infrastructure, and has a higher correlation with the “high-energy consumption and high-emissions” industries and a lower correlation with the strategic emerging industries. Therefore, when allocating the incremental infrastructure expenditure between the two types of infrastructure, there is a trade-off between maintaining growth and adjusting structure. According to the calculation results of the national production network in 2020, if we increase expenditure on infrastructure by 1 unit and spend over 55% of it on the new infrastructure, we can achieve the dual goals of steady growth and structural adjustment at the same time. In addition, due to the large differences in production networks among provinces, the multiplier effect and industrial structure upgrading effect of the two types of infrastructure expenditures in each province are obviously heterogeneous. Based on the analysis, the corresponding policy suggestions are presented finally.

关 键 词：基建支出 生产网络 乘数效应 产业升级 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] F812.45