Energy transition toward carbon-neutrality in China:Pathways,implications and uncertainties  

作　　者：Yong YANG Hui WANG Andreas LOSCHEL Peng ZHOU 

机构地区：[1]College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China [2]School of Economics and Management,China Universityof Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,China [3]Ruhr-Universitat Bochum,44801 Bochum,Germany

出　　处：《Frontiers of Engineering Management》2022年第3期358-372,共15页工程管理前沿（英文版）

基　　金：This workwas supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71934007 and 72173134).

摘　　要：Achieving carbon neutrality in China before 2060 requires a radical energy transition.To identify the possible transition pathways of China's energy system,this study presents a scenario-based assessment using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform(LEAP)model.China could peak the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions before 2030 with current policies,while carbon neutrality entails a reduction of 7.8 Gt CO_(2)in emissions in 2060 and requires an energy system overhaul.The assessment of the relationship between the energy transition and energy return on investment(EROI)reveals that energy transition may decrease the EROI,which would trigger increased energy investment,energy demand,and emissions.Uncertainty analysis further shows that the slow renewable energy integration policies and carbon capture and storage(CCS)penetration pace could hinder the emission mitigation,and the possible fossil fuel shortage calls for a much rapid proliferation of wind and solar power.Results suggest a continuation of the current preferential policies for renewables and further research and development on deployment of CCS.The results also indicate the need for backup capacities to enhance the energy security during the transition.

关 键 词：scarbon NEUTRALITY energy TRANSITION uncertainty EROI LEAP 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]