数字普惠金融对实体经济的影响--基于系统GMM与面板门槛模型的实证分析  

The Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on the Real Economy:Empirical Analysis Based on System GMM and Panel Threshold Model

作　　者：李林汉 韩明希 侯毅苇 LI Linhan;HAN Mingxi;HOU Yiwei(School of Economics,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China;Science and Technology Finance Key Laboratory of Hebei Province,Hebei Finance University,Baoding 071051,China;School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学经济学院,北京100081 [2]河北金融学院河北省科技金融重点实验室,河北保定071051 [3]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2022年第12期14-25,共12页East China Economic Management

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金一般项目“河北省数字经济发展水平测度与驱动因素研究”(HB21TJ003)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2019年我国31个省份的平衡面板数据,文章采用系统GMM估计方法和面板门槛回归模型,实证分析了数字普惠金融对实体经济的影响效应,并且检验了居民消费、地区创业和科技创新在数字普惠金融影响实体经济中的中介传导效应。研究发现:数字普惠金融对实体经济有显著的促进效应,而且这种效应存在区域性与结构性差异;居民消费、地区创业和科技创新在数字普惠金融影响实体经济中发挥了中介传导作用;面板门槛模型实证认为,固定资本投入低和城镇化水平高的地区,数字普惠金融促进实体经济的效应高。最后从继续大力发展数字普惠金融、深化金融市场供给侧结构性改革、实现数字普惠金融协调发展等方面给出政策性建议。Based on the balanced panel data of 31 provincesfrom 2011 to 2019,the paper empirically analyzes the impact of digital inclusive finance on the real economy using the system GMM estimation method and panel threshold regression model;and tests the intermediary transmission effect of household consumption,regional entrepreneurship,and technolog⁃ical innovation in the impact of digital inclusive finance on the real economy.The research finds that digital inclusive fi⁃nance has a significant promoting effect on the real economy,and there are regional and structural differences in this ef⁃fect;resident consumption,regional entrepreneurship,and technological innovation play an intermediary transmission role in the impact of digital inclusive finance on the real economy;the panel threshold model empirically believes that dig⁃ital inclusive finance has a high effect on promoting the real economy in regions with low fixed capital investment and high urbanization level.Based on this,policy suggestions are given in terms of continuing to vigorously improve the devel⁃opment level of digital inclusive finance,deepening the supply side structrual reform of financial markets,and achieving coordinated development of digital inclusive finance.

关 键 词：数字普惠金融 实体经济 系统GMM 面板门槛回归模型 中介传导效应 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F49F124