基于景气分析的海洋经济发展监测预警研究  

Monitoring and Early Warning of Marine Economic Development Based on Boom Analysis

作　　者：徐胜[1,2] 刘书芳 Xu Sheng;Liu Shufang(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Institute of Ocean Development,Qingdao,Shandong,266100,P.R.China;School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong,266100,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院

出　　处：《中国海洋经济》2022年第1期162-182,共21页Marine Economy in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大专项“新时代海洋强国指标体系与推进路径研究”(项目编号:18VHQ003)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文使用灰色关联分析法在景气指数分析框架下构建能够评价中国海洋经济发展的指标体系,并进一步对2005~2018年中国海洋经济发展进行监测预警分析。基于海洋经济发展指标体系,景气指数分析法中扩散指数和合成指数显示,中国海洋经济发展呈现景气增长的趋势;海洋经济预警系统中的综合预警指数显示,2005~2018年中国的海洋经济发展整体处于稳定区间。本文对中国海洋经济14年的运行情况进行动态监测预警,依据影响海洋经济发展的相关指标变化趋势,可为海洋经济的可持续发展提供研究依据。In this paper,the grey correlation analysis method is used to construct an indicator system that can evaluate the development of China’s Marine economy under the framework of climate analysis,and the monitoring and early warning analysis of The development of China’s Marine economy from 2005 to 2018 is further carried out.Based on the Marine economy development index system,the diffusion index and the composite index in the boom analysis method show that China’s Marine economy has been developing year by year,and the comprehensive early warning index in the Marine economy early warning system shows that China’s Marine economy has been developing in a stable range from 2005 to 2018.This paper carries out dynamic monitoring and early warning on the operation of China’s Marine economy in 14 years,and provides research basis for the sustainable development of Marine economy according to the change trend of relevant indicators affecting the development of Marine economy.

关 键 词：海洋经济 海洋生产总值 海洋可持续发展 海洋经济监测 经济预警系统 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]