防洪风险计算和防洪库容分配模型研究  

Study on Flood Risk Calculation and Flood Control Reservoir Capacity Allocation Model

作　　者：潘立涛 PAN Li-tao(Shenzhen City Water Affairs Technology Service Co.Ltd.,Shenzhen 518000,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市水务技术服务有限公司,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2022年第11期124-129,共6页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：在汛期,水库的防洪调度分析至关重要,可以为防洪调度工作提供重要保障和依据。通过防洪风险计算和防洪库容分配模型,基于广东某水库的防洪调控数据为研究实例,建立单库和多库的防洪调度模型,根据模型对库容序列进行计算,并拟合库容频率曲线,对短调控期进行风险预测。结果表明,不同的洪水级别和防洪的调度方式会影响上下游水库的互用比例,任一条件的改变都会导致互用比例的不同。梯级水库防洪调度中,上游水库对下游水库的风险率有显著的削减,能够提高下游水库的抗洪能力。In the flood season,flood control and scheduling analysis of reservoirs is crucial and can provide important guarantee and basis for flood control and regulation work.In this paper,a flood risk calculation and flood control capacity allocation model is proposed.Based on the flood control regulation data of a reservoir in Guangdong as a research example,a flood control scheduling model for single and multiple reservoirs is established,and the reservoir capacity sequence is calculated according to the model,and the reservoir capacity frequency curve is fitted,and the risk prediction is made for short regulation periods.The results show that different flood levels and flood control scheduling methods affect the mutual use ratio of upstream and downstream reservoirs,and any change of conditions will lead to different mutual use ratios.The risk ratio of upstream reservoirs to downstream reservoirs in the scheduling of flood control of the graded reservoirs is significantly reduced,which can improve the flood resistance of downstream reservoirs.

关 键 词：防洪库容 风险分析 频率曲线 联合防洪调度 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]